Author: Uri Blass
Date: 13:55:55 05/24/04
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On May 24, 2004 at 16:43:13, Dieter Buerssner wrote: >On May 24, 2004 at 16:16:15, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On May 24, 2004 at 16:04:23, Peter McKenzie wrote: >> >>>I would say that if Crafty's expected score against Shredder in around 25-30% >>>then in a 10 game match there is still a reasonable chance of getting a 50% >>>score. Someone else can probably give the exact probability but I'd guess it is >>>at least 10%, in which case it certainly seems worth 'hoping for'. > >>We need to know the probability for draw and the probability for a win for white >>to calculate. > >For example these values (which may include different probabilities for draws as >white and as black). Or some other combination of the winning/drawing >probabilities for white and black. > >>If we assume that white has 80% chances to win and 20% to draw in case that >>white is shredder when it is 100% draw in case that white is Crafty then the >>expected result is 7-3 but the probability for 5-5 is 0.2^5 that is very >>small(0.032%). >> >>If we assume 70% for shredder 30% for crafty in every game then the probability >>for 5-5 is 0.7^5*0.3^5*10!/(5!^2) and it is more than 10%. > >A bit more. 15% for the probability of the weaker player to get 5-5 or better. Yes more than 10% is only the probability to get exactly 5-5 so it is logical that if you include win for the weaker player you get even 15%. Your estimate of 7-9% in the real case of expected result of 70% also make sense Uri
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