Author: Michael Yee
Date: 09:40:28 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 11:11:47, Graham Laight wrote: >My points (made throughout the thread - not just in the previous post in this >branch of the thread) are: > >1. Given the Hydra and Fritz results, the Junior result is unexpectedly low > >2. The Hydra and Fritz results taken together are an indication of great >strength > >-g > Okay. I agree with (1) (even unconditioned on the other results). For example, from Junior's match with Kasparov, maybe I would say Junior's expected score was >= 50%. I also tentatively agree with (2) (although good results at a single tournament could also just be rare). I guess where we differ is in the interpretation of (1). I lean towards writing it off as normal variation. From your other posts, I incorrectly understood you to be saying this: "Because an event that occurred would be considered rare under hypothetical environment E1, it *must* be the case that E1 isn't true". (Note that under E1 here, junior is as strong as the other engines against humans.) To me, the rare event happening might just slightly alter the probability of E1 being true. Thanks for explaining your view. I like discussions about probability, but many of the arguments can be subtle. Michael
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