Author: Graham Laight
Date: 08:11:47 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 10:55:20, Michael Yee wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 10:42:08, Graham Laight wrote: >>On October 13, 2004 at 10:33:30, Michael Yee wrote: > >>>have 1 "bad" (or underperforming) tournament out of 20, i.e., with low >>>probability. But the rare event *will* (or could) happen at some point. >> >>Please see the answer I gave in >>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391399 >> >>-g >> >>>Michael > >No offense, but I don't think I understand what your point is. Your simulation My points (made throughout the thread - not just in the previous post in this branch of the thread) are: 1. Given the Hydra and Fritz results, the Junior result is unexpectedly low 2. The Hydra and Fritz results taken together are an indication of great strength >(or even just a basic probability calculation) shows that a "low" score for an >engine that is assumed to have a certain strength is a rare event. I don't >disagree with that. I'm just confused about what conclusions you're trying to >draw from witnessing a rare event. > >Here's how I might put bilbao in perspective: Suppose we are looking at this >tournament as simply one in a stream of tournaments, and we consider updating >junior's rating (i.e., strength estimate) in a bayesian way. Then junior's past >results would weigh much more heavily than this one new result and the rating >wouldn't change by much. > >What would I conclude? Probably that junior had a (slightly) rare result. The Junior result is probably not too far away from what you'd expect. Perhaps I have been looking in astonishment at the wrong place. Perhaps the astonishment should be focused upon the 7/8 score which Hydra and Fritz achieved - which is highly improbable (I calculated 1/160 in another post in this thread) unless these two computers are substantially better than the opponents that they faced at Bilbao. -g >Michael
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