Author: Michael Yee
Date: 07:55:20 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 10:42:08, Graham Laight wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 10:33:30, Michael Yee wrote: >>have 1 "bad" (or underperforming) tournament out of 20, i.e., with low >>probability. But the rare event *will* (or could) happen at some point. > >Please see the answer I gave in >http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391399 > >-g > >>Michael No offense, but I don't think I understand what your point is. Your simulation (or even just a basic probability calculation) shows that a "low" score for an engine that is assumed to have a certain strength is a rare event. I don't disagree with that. I'm just confused about what conclusions you're trying to draw from witnessing a rare event. Here's how I might put bilbao in perspective: Suppose we are looking at this tournament as simply one in a stream of tournaments, and we consider updating junior's rating (i.e., strength estimate) in a bayesian way. Then junior's past results would weigh much more heavily than this one new result and the rating wouldn't change by much. What would I conclude? Probably that junior had a (slightly) rare result. Michael
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