Author: Graham Laight
Date: 07:42:08 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 10:33:30, Michael Yee wrote: >Like Joachim, I don't think most people disagree with your initial observation >that Junior "underperformed" in the tournament. However, what set people off is >when you asked "why" in your initial post--as if something inherent in junior >caused it to score poorly in this particular tournament. Most people here seem >to attribute junior's relatively lower score in this particular tournament to >random effects. > >Furthermore, considering the probability of an event after it occurs leads to >funny conclusions sometimes. For example, I could walk over to a parked car, >look at its license plate number and think to myself, "Wow, the probability of >me seeing XYZ123 is practically zero, but here I am looking at it!" Junior might I agree that seeing number XYZ123 is highly improbable. Each time you see car plate number, you are seeing a highly improbable number. In this case, you should expect to see a highly improbable number. In the case of chess results, you would expect to mostly see relatively probable numbers. >have 1 "bad" (or underperforming) tournament out of 20, i.e., with low >probability. But the rare event *will* (or could) happen at some point. Please see the answer I gave in http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391399 -g >Michael
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