Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 10:39:38 10/14/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 14, 2004 at 06:14:28, Graham Laight wrote: >On October 14, 2004 at 05:31:31, Dennis Breuker wrote: > >>On October 13, 2004 at 15:45:32, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On October 13, 2004 at 07:38:13, Graham Laight wrote: >>> >>>>Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now >>>>I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in >>>>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 >>>> >>>>Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss >>>>probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the >>>>kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win >>>>probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% >>>>gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. >>>> >>>>However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! >>>> >>>>To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were >>>>statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come >>>>up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we >>>>saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. >>>> >>>>I await your probability numbers... >>>> >>>>-g >>> >>> >>>What happens if you run your simulation for only +four+ games for each player??? >>> >>>:) >> >>I did just that: >> >>DJ won 1.5 points in 75% of the tournaments >>DJ won 2 points in 25% of the tournaments >> >>So the result was to be expected! :^) > >With the parameters that you used, what was the probability of getting 3.5 - >which both Hydra and Fritz managed to achieve (assuming that you are a follower >of the prevailing doctrine that all 3 computers had approximately equal winning >probabilities)? > >Actually, I can tell you: with 75% of tournaments producing 1.5 points, and 25% >of tournaments producing 2 points, your probability of getting 3.5 (which both >Fritz and Hydra achieved at Bilbao), is 0. > >Point proven! ;-) > >-g Sorry. _no_ probability is zero given the data being discussed. "small" maybe. "zero" never....
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