Author: Graham Laight
Date: 03:14:28 10/14/04
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On October 14, 2004 at 05:31:31, Dennis Breuker wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 15:45:32, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On October 13, 2004 at 07:38:13, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now >>>I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in >>>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 >>> >>>Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss >>>probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the >>>kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win >>>probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% >>>gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. >>> >>>However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! >>> >>>To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were >>>statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come >>>up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we >>>saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. >>> >>>I await your probability numbers... >>> >>>-g >> >> >>What happens if you run your simulation for only +four+ games for each player??? >> >>:) > >I did just that: > >DJ won 1.5 points in 75% of the tournaments >DJ won 2 points in 25% of the tournaments > >So the result was to be expected! :^) With the parameters that you used, what was the probability of getting 3.5 - which both Hydra and Fritz managed to achieve (assuming that you are a follower of the prevailing doctrine that all 3 computers had approximately equal winning probabilities)? Actually, I can tell you: with 75% of tournaments producing 1.5 points, and 25% of tournaments producing 2 points, your probability of getting 3.5 (which both Fritz and Hydra achieved at Bilbao), is 0. Point proven! ;-) -g
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