Author: Dennis Breuker
Date: 02:31:31 10/14/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 15:45:32, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 07:38:13, Graham Laight wrote: > >>Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now >>I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in >>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 >> >>Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss >>probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the >>kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win >>probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% >>gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. >> >>However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! >> >>To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were >>statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come >>up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we >>saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. >> >>I await your probability numbers... >> >>-g > > >What happens if you run your simulation for only +four+ games for each player??? > >:) I did just that: DJ won 1.5 points in 75% of the tournaments DJ won 2 points in 25% of the tournaments So the result was to be expected! :^)
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