Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 12:45:32 10/13/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 13, 2004 at 07:38:13, Graham Laight wrote: >Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now >I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in >http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 > >Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss >probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the >kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win >probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% >gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. > >However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! > >To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were >statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come >up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we >saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. > >I await your probability numbers... > >-g What happens if you run your simulation for only +four+ games for each player??? :)
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