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Subject: Re: Future of Chess: Will GMs be able to draw computers?

Author: Vasik Rajlich

Date: 09:45:07 10/19/04

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On October 19, 2004 at 09:34:00, Tord Romstad wrote:

>On October 19, 2004 at 05:57:06, Vasik Rajlich wrote:
>
>>It's a sort of interesting accident that computer vs human is balanced at the
>>moment. If the game was more tactical, humans would already be crushed and we
>>would accept it as a matter of course. If it was more positional, humans would
>>still be stronger, maybe much stronger.
>
>I don't think it is quite that simple.  Consider the game of shogi, which is
>arguably a more tactical game than western chess.  The best computers have no
>chance against the best humans.
>
>I think there are two main reasons why computers are so good at chess:
>
>1. Material is very important in chess.  A material advantage is usually
>sufficient to win.  This makes it easy to write reasonably accurate evaluation
>functions for chess.  In shogi, material is much less important, while factors
>like initiative and king safety (which are much more difficult to quantify)
>play a more significant role.

True - although this is something which helps make chess more tactical and less
strategic, as I understand those words.

>
>2. The branching factor in chess is not too high.  This means that computer
>programs running on current hardware can afford to waste lots of time analysing
>nonsense variations, and still search deeply enough to see the relevant
>tactical lines.  This is not yet the case in shogi.  The horizon effect is
>still a very real program, and top human players are able to outsearch the
>best programs in tactical lines.
>
>Even in chess, I am not sure it is strictly true that computers are better
>than the best humans in tactics.  The picture is a bit more complicated.
>Computers are extremely good at finding short, bushy tactics, while the
>best GMs are better at finding very deep, narrow tactics including non-checks
>and quiet moves near the end of the lines.  Consider the Nolot test suite,
>which consists of problems solved by human players at a normal tournament
>time control, but which the computers still struggle to solve.
>

Yes, it's probably an oversimplification to say that computers can calculate and
humans can evaluate. Still, in practice, in chess, it's more-or-less true. The
deep narrow tactics are not so common or so important. I don't see people losing
because of this, or computers losing to humans because of it.

>In chess, computer hardware has reached the stage where the programs'
>superiority in short, bushy tactics almost exactly compensates for their
>relative weakness at understanding deep, narrow tactics.  In shogi, we
>will have to wait a few more years before this happens.

Actually, there is one other property which chess has which helps make chess
engines strong. Given a primitive evaluation, as you search more, you play
better positional moves. I am not sure that this is inevitable for any game.

There is a related issue, that of validating changes to evaluation. Evaluation
terms can be broken down into:
1) terms which are relatively dynamic, and can be viewed as approximations to a
deeper search (for example, king safety)
2) terms which are relatively static - and not related to search (for example,
pawn structure)

Another way to say it: terms in group #1 can be validated by noting if they
bring scores closer to scores from deeper searches, terms in group #2 cannot.

Generally, a game whose group #1 is bigger will have a bigger search influence,
and stronger play by computers. In chess, group #1 is quite big.

Vas

>
>Tord



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