Author: Theo van der Storm
Date: 16:00:03 03/06/05
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On March 06, 2005 at 13:11:25, Lars Bremer wrote: >One should mention that Theo's last move was a blunder. Of course he has the >chance of 0.5 to win the game now, but if he doesn't, your chance is much better >than it should be because he captured your 4. That inceased your chance >dramatically. > >Lars It's nice to see other people become interested in the game! It is more subtle then you (OR EVEN INGO!) thought. Let's have a look at 6d2xc3? x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 2/6 * 5/6 = 50/216 Let's have a look at 6d2-d3 x6 moves in case of 5(but not the first time) or 6. x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 = 2/216 x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4 or 5. x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 4/6 * 2/6 * 4/6 = 32/216 giving a total of 34/216. Let's have a look at the move I played: 6d2xc2! x6 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 25/216 The subtlety is in the TACTICS of the first move of x4 after 6d2-d3. It goes to d1 leaving it only half as vulnerable to capture as d2 would be! Conclusion: My move was optimal :-) Theo
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