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Subject: Re: ELO fails at the extremes

Author: KarinsDad

Date: 09:45:56 01/31/99

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On January 30, 1999 at 11:48:16, Kim Hvarre wrote:

>On January 30, 1999 at 01:28:51, KarinsDad wrote:
>
>>On January 29, 1999 at 23:59:55, Peter Kappler wrote:
>>
>>>
>>
>>My meaning is as follows:
>>
>>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 (as per Dann's
>>posting).
>>
>>This means that out of 100,000 players with an 1800 ELO (1900 USCF rated
>>players), 315 of them should on average win (i.e. 315 wins or even more draws)
>>against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times if all 100,000 of them
>>played him. This is total bull. It would be an amazing event if even one of them
>>won (or even drew) against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times.
>>
>
>Well, I think that if Kasparov had to play around 57 years without any pauses
>(games in around 5h), he would loose a few;))
>
>regards/kim

He might lose a few. 6, 8, possibly even 1 a year or 57, but not 315. Not
against 1800 ELO players.

KarinsDad



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