Author: KarinsDad
Date: 10:03:18 01/31/99
Go up one level in this thread
On January 30, 1999 at 01:53:19, James B. Shearer wrote: >On January 29, 1999 at 22:40:25, KarinsDad wrote: > > <snip> > >>If an up and coming 1800 ELO player is really playing at 2100 strength, then he >>is a 2100 player, regardless of his rating. So you can get a high percentage of >>up and coming 1800 players beating 2200 players since their strength is really >>2100, but that same set of 1800 players would NEVER win against the 2800 (i.e. >>Kasparov level) player at tournament times. Certainly not 1 time in 400 (or 1 >>time in 55 as per the real 700 point difference). Do you see now why I think the >>formula is skewed at larger ranges? > > Even Kasparov has bad games. Have you looked at the game he just lost (as >black in 28 moves) in the Wijk tournament? White's first 24 moves were book. >White's next 4 moves were good but nothing a 1800 player couldn't find on a good >day. Everybody has bad games. No doubt about it. And 1800 players do find 2800 level moves. The problem is that 1800 players do not find 2800 level moves throughout the entire game. > So I don't see why you think a 1800 player could never beat a 2800. Yes, I did use the word never. It was late at night when I wrote that. That is obviously not true. I meant to say that the probabilities are infinitesimally small, much smaller than what is predicted by the ELO formula, but not zero. > I agree however that the rating model is just a model and no doubt does not >perfectly represent reality. Thanks for agreeing. > James B. Shearer KarinsDad :)
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