Author: Francesco Di Tolla
Date: 02:50:36 04/19/05
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>In ten years time, computers will be 2^10 = 1024 times faster than today. >Right now, chess programs seem to be about as strong as the strongest humans. I think that the doubling period was 18-24 months, so you get 3 orders of magnitude in at best 15 years, and it will be about trnasistors density rahter than true clock speed. The phisical limit could be when you reach a transistor made of a single atom, I doubt you will ever have that or anything below that: atom spacing is in the order of 10^-10 m (Aangstroms) while the newes AMD fabs are going to work in the at 60 nm (6 10^-8 m), this means that scaling at moore speed we will hit the atom spacing limit in 30 years more or less. The future could be a new kind of elctronics based on spin-states rather electron states (actually spintronics). With that
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