Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 10:23:22 04/19/05
Go up one level in this thread
On April 19, 2005 at 04:52:12, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >On April 19, 2005 at 04:00:45, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On April 19, 2005 at 03:34:43, Drexel,Michael wrote: >> >>>On April 18, 2005 at 21:05:10, Dann Corbit wrote: >>> >>>>On April 18, 2005 at 20:50:52, Mark Ryan wrote: >>>> >>>>>http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4449711.stm >>>>> >>>>>"But when Moore's Law is effectively slowed down in about 10 to 20 years' time >>>>>..." >>>>> >>>>>A few years ago, Grandmaster Lev Alburt stated that chess computers would never >>>>>be stronger than the strongest humans. If there is a practical (or asymptotic) >>>>>limit to computer speed, maybe he was right. >>>>> >>>>>(Disclaimer: I realize that chess strength is not just about speed, but it is >>>>>certainly a contributing factor.) >>>> >>>>In ten years time, computers will be 2^10 = 1024 times faster than today. >>>>Right now, chess programs seem to be about as strong as the strongest humans> >>> >>>How fast was your PC 10 years ago? >>>2.4 Mhz? >> >>more than it. >> >>I remember that 10 years ago P90 was available >>and I guess that the price was similiar to the price of computers of today. > >According to > >http://cpu-museum.de/?m=Intel&f=Pentium-S+%2F+P54C#cpu0007 > >the P120 was introduced in 1995. This means that clock speed has roughly doubled >every 2 years. Now forget about clock speed and look at what has been happening to the MIPS, which is the only thing that really matters. Faster does not mean just change in clock speed. Faster means how much compute power increases. Better scheduling, better caches, better everything is what happens. Not just better clock rate. >>I see no logical reason to believe that computers will be 2^10 faster in 10 >>years. >> >>Maybe there is going to be a third world war and people will destroy even the >>computers of today so computers will be slower in 2015. >> >>Uri
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