Author: Steve Maughan
Date: 00:33:35 05/12/99
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I disagree! I think that for the effort that has gone into these engines they ALL represent great value. I'd even go as far as saying that they are cheap!! Not so long ago (1990) you would have to pay £3000+ ($5000+) for the very top of the range Lyon 68030. This did have an excellent deluxe sensor board (value ~£600) but most of the value was taken up by the chess engine. I remember almost salivating at the thought of a machine of this power. Now all of the current crop of top programs would wipe the floor with the Lyon 68030 (even give equal hardware). On top of this the modern programs also add even more value with additional analysis features. This represents real progress and I certainly don't begrudge the $50-$90 for each program. The market for computer chess is certainly not big enough to warrant $15 per program. If I were to segment the market for computer chess I would say there are three main segments; 1) People who play chess occasionally but have no interest in competitive chess 2) Competitive chess players who want to practice and analyse using a computer 3) People who are interested in computer chess as a hobby The first segment is the mass-market segment dominated by ChessMaster. What is needed in this segment is a big shiny box, snazzy graphics and possibly a chess tutor. The last thing you need in this market is a strong engine. The real key is most likely distribution. The price will be the same as all of the other current PC games. The second segment is more complex. People in this segment will most likely buy one or two programs that they will use on a day to day basis to help them prepare and analyse their matches. I would imagine that this segment is concerned about usability and raw strength. Since very few chess programs allow the user to ‘try before they buy’ price, advertising and PR will most likely influence the decision to purchase. As a result I would imagine that Fritz dominates this section. The final section is simple. This represents the relatively large group of people who are interested more in computer chess than chess itself. They would be the type of person that would join a bulletin board such as CCC. I would put myself in this class. IMO this group buys almost everything that is released. Price is not the main influence in this group. If computer chess is your hobby then it’s not too outrageous to spend $300-$700 a year to have all latest releases (about the same as membership to a golf club). I imagine that this group represents most of the sales of programs such as Junior, HIARCS, Nimzo, MChess and Shredder. There are approx. 4000 member of this forum - would we be too far out to say that many of these programs sell about 4000 copies a year? I don’t know it’s just a guess. This would also point to low price sensitivity, which in turn would indicate that from a business point of view the price of these programs should go up – not down. Why am I advocating this you might ask? Well I think the way the industry is going at the moment everyone is trying to compete on price, with the result that the market is shrinking for each program. If this continues it will destroy the industry and I certainly don’t want that. IMO each programmer should take a step back and decide whom they are targeting. Anyway that my 2 penneth. I’ve rambled on - what do people think? Regards Steve Maughan
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