Author: Michael Ginat
Date: 08:18:05 05/12/99
Go up one level in this thread
On May 12, 1999 at 03:33:35, Steve Maughan wrote: >I disagree! I think that for the effort that has gone into these engines they >ALL represent great value. I'd even go as far as saying that they are cheap!! > >Not so long ago (1990) you would have to pay £3000+ ($5000+) for the very top of >the range Lyon 68030. This did have an excellent deluxe sensor board (value >~£600) but most of the value was taken up by the chess engine. I remember >almost salivating at the thought of a machine of this power. Now all of the >current crop of top programs would wipe the floor with the Lyon 68030 (even give >equal hardware). On top of this the modern programs also add even more value >with additional analysis features. This represents real progress and I certainly >don't begrudge the $50-$90 for each program. The market for computer chess is >certainly not big enough to warrant $15 per program. If I were to segment the >market for computer chess I would say there are three main segments; > >1) People who play chess occasionally but have no interest in competitive chess >2) Competitive chess players who want to practice and analyse using a computer >3) People who are interested in computer chess as a hobby > >The first segment is the mass-market segment dominated by ChessMaster. What is >needed in this segment is a big shiny box, snazzy graphics and possibly a chess >tutor. The last thing you need in this market is a strong engine. The real key >is most likely distribution. The price will be the same as all of the other >current PC games. > >The second segment is more complex. People in this segment will most likely buy >one or two programs that they will use on a day to day basis to help them >prepare and analyse their matches. I would imagine that this segment is >concerned about usability and raw strength. Since very few chess programs allow >the user to ‘try before they buy’ price, advertising and PR will most likely >influence the decision to purchase. As a result I would imagine that Fritz >dominates this section. > >The final section is simple. This represents the relatively large group of >people who are interested more in computer chess than chess itself. They would >be the type of person that would join a bulletin board such as CCC. I would put >myself in this class. IMO this group buys almost everything that is released. >Price is not the main influence in this group. If computer chess is your hobby >then it’s not too outrageous to spend $300-$700 a year to have all latest >releases (about the same as membership to a golf club). I imagine that this >group represents most of the sales of programs such as Junior, HIARCS, Nimzo, >MChess and Shredder. There are approx. 4000 member of this forum - would we be >too far out to say that many of these programs sell about 4000 copies a year? I >don’t know it’s just a guess. This would also point to low price sensitivity, >which in turn would indicate that from a business point of view the price of >these programs should go up – not down. Why am I advocating this you might ask? > Well I think the way the industry is going at the moment everyone is trying to >compete on price, with the result that the market is shrinking for each program. > If this continues it will destroy the industry and I certainly don’t want that. > IMO each programmer should take a step back and decide whom they are targeting. > >Anyway that my 2 penneth. I’ve rambled on - what do people think? > >Regards > >Steve Maughan I totally agree with your ramblings Steve :) regards, Michael
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