Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 14:38:06 06/08/99
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On June 08, 1999 at 17:31:47, Christoph Fieberg wrote:
>Humans are far away from playing perfect chess but computers will come more and
>more closer to it. At the turn of the century the best computer (Deep Blue) and
>the best human (G. Kasparov) are roughly at the same level of about Elo 2800. I
>assume that this will not last very long and that in the next 20 years the best
>computer (X1) will score 80% against the best human meaning that will see chess
>at Elo level 3040.
>
>I could imagine that if chess software and computer hardware will steadly be
>improved one of the next chess computer generation (X2) will beat the
>predecessor (X1) finally also with a 80% score pushing the Elo level up to 3280.
>
>X3 will do the same with X2 (Elo level then 3520), X4 will do the same with X3
>(Elo level then 3760) and so on and so on. X5 reachs Elo 4000 and after some
>hundred years X30 will gain Elo 10000!
>
>If it was ever possible that computers played absolutely perfect chess the
>MAXIMUM Elo number would be determined.
>
>The gnawing question is: HOW HIGH IS THE MAXIMUM ELO NUMBER?
>
>Or in other words: How far are humans and computers away from playing perfect
>chess?
It is a relative measure. So if a computer that played against players in the
mid 1800's were to play against modern players, the rating would change. And if
Deep Blue were to play against the same machine with Hsu's new chips, and those
were the only two machines in the ELO calculation pool, then Deep Blue would get
a low ELO {probably -- assuming the chips become reality and perform as
expected}!!
The maximum ELO is obtained by playing against a common houseplant, which always
forfeits on time. My ELO in this pool is quite impressive.
;-)
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