Author: KarinsDad
Date: 15:20:33 10/06/99
Go up one level in this thread
On October 06, 1999 at 18:05:31, Dave Gomboc wrote: >On October 06, 1999 at 16:10:52, KarinsDad wrote: > >>On October 06, 1999 at 15:57:14, Dave Gomboc wrote: >> >>[snip] >>> >>>Ratings predict results. The Canadian system is arguably MORE accurate at >>>predicting results than the US system for this reason, but certainly not less. >>> >>>Dave >> >>How so (that is really confusing)? >> >>KarinsDad :) > >Because the ratings are tied to the results of all pairings made, not just those >games where both people showed up. > Dave, Maybe I am just being dense but, yeah so? The fact is that any forfeit can lower or raise a person's rating by as much as 32 points (in the US). But, that person did not REALLY deserve such a raise or lowering. Let's take an example: Say two 1600 players are supposed to play, but in the last round, one gets in a car accident (he is not injured, he just cannot make it to the tournament) and forfeits. Nobody knows why he forfeited, so the TD sends in the pairings to the federation. These two players are both 1600 (let's assume that they both maintained their rating in the first x rounds of the tournament). They are fairly close in strength. But after this tournament, one of them is rated 1616 and the other is rated 1584. Is it true that the 1584 player is REALLY 32 points lower than the other? Of course not. But, that does not stop him from getting this rating. How can one state that it is MORE accurate to predict results between the 1584 and the 1616 player when in reality, they should both be 1600 players? The prediction should be off. Please explain with more detail since I am clueless on this (and yes, I realize that if someone has a propensity to forfeit, this would lower his rating in the long run). Thanks, KarinsDad :)
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