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Subject: Re: Poll Question ?

Author: Graham Laight

Date: 15:06:12 01/04/00

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On January 04, 2000 at 11:42:04, Chris Carson wrote:

>Where would the SSDF top program (Chess Tiger) rank on
>this list?  Where would the top SSDF program (could be different)
>rank if the hardware was a PIII 800?  Will FIDE ever allow
>programs in FIDE events?

Q1. One of the SSDF team has told us that the list is over-rated by 20-30
points, so we already know the answer - we don't need a poll. The answer is
between 10 and 12. Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points
either way (it's actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the
between 26 and 5.

Q2. We know that the upper limit of improvement would be 60 points, so again -
we don't need a poll because we already know the answer: between 2 and 12.
Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points either way (it's
actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the between 26 and 2.

Q3. We know from the Intel sponsored active tournament in London in 1994 (and
from the lack of protest by GK at not being allowed to play DB again) that once
GMs have been humiliated in public by the computers, they will stop allowing
them into the tournaments. While this answer has less weight of evidence behind
it than the other 2 answers, it's still a reasonably safe bet.

To allow the CCC herd to vote on the first two issues would be like allowing the
luddites of the middle ages to vote on whether the earth is flat. You'll get a
decisive answer all right - but that answer will eventually be proven to be
wrong.

-g

>Top 50
>
>1.  Kasparov,Garry          RUS     2838    140
>2.  Kramnik,Vladimir        RUS     2734    114
>3.  Shirov,Alexei           ESP     2723    181
>4.  Anand,Viswanathan       IND     2722    118
>5.  Morozevich,Alexander    RUS     2705    181
>6.  Leko,Peter              HUN     2700    134
>7.  Kamsky,Gata             USA     2696    184
>8.  Bareev,Evgeny           RUS     2685    151
>9.  Adams,Michael           ENG     2676    173
>10. Topalov,Veselin         BUL     2668    168
>11. Short,Nigel D           ENG     2666    148
>12. Ivanchuk,Vassily        UKR     2663    154
>13. Gelfand,Boris           ISR     2651    152
>14. Azmaiparashvili,Zurab   GEO     2651    131
>15. Karpov,Anatoli          RUS     2646    134
>16. Dreev,Alexey            RUS     2645    155
>17. Georgiev,Kiril          BUL     2643    156
>18. Korchnoi,Viktor         SUI     2642    152
>19. Akopian,Vladimir        ARM     2638    171
>20. Movsesian,Sergei        CZE     2634    159
>21. Beliavsky,Alexander     SLO     2633    166
>22. Krasenkov,Mikhail       POL     2629    191
>23. Almasi,Zoltan           HUN     2628    162
>24. Svidler,Peter           RUS     2628    160
>25. Fedorov,Alexey          BLR     2625    187
>26. Timman,Jan H            NED     2624    195
>27. Nikolic,Predrag         BIH     2622    140
>28. Polgar,Judit            HUN     2621    176
>29. Seirawan,Yasser         USA     2621    170
>30. Khalifman,Alexander     RUS     2620    162
>31. Sokolov,Ivan            BIH     2617    168
>32. Rublevsky,Sergei        RUS     2616    141
>33. Salov,Valery            RUS     2612    199
>34. Gulko,Boris             USA     2610    163
>35. Hansen,Curt             DEN     2607    158
>36. Kobalija,Mikhael        RUS     2607    166
>37. Gurevich,Mikhail        BEL     2605    139
>38. Ponomariov,Ruslan       UKR     2605    165
>39. Hjartarson,Johann       ISD     2604    175
>40. Yusupov,Artur           GER     2604    144
>41. Sadler,Matthew          ENG     2603    182
>42. Granda Zuniga,Julio     PER     2602    202
>43. Wolff,Patrick           USA     2602    186
>44. Tkachev,Vladislav       FRA     2600    145
>45. Smirin,Ilia             ISR     2599    182
>46. Kasimdzhanov,Rustam     UZB     2599    174
>47. Khenkin,Igor            RUS     2598    193
>48. Lautier,Joel            FRA     2596    157
>49. Kharlov,Andrei          RUS     2596    170
>50. Magerramov,Elmar        AZE     2595    187
>51. Piket,Jeroen            NED     2595    153
>52. Bologan,Viorel          MDA     2594    199
>
>Source:  http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/twic269.html
>
>Oh, I vote #50 for question 1, #15 for question 2,
>and no for question 3.
>
>Just my opinion.  :)
>
>Best Regards,
>Chris Carson



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