Author: James Robertson
Date: 16:55:37 01/04/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 04, 2000 at 18:06:12, Graham Laight wrote: >On January 04, 2000 at 11:42:04, Chris Carson wrote: > >>Where would the SSDF top program (Chess Tiger) rank on >>this list? Where would the top SSDF program (could be different) >>rank if the hardware was a PIII 800? Will FIDE ever allow >>programs in FIDE events? > >Q1. One of the SSDF team has told us that the list is over-rated by 20-30 >points, so we already know the answer - we don't need a poll. The answer is >between 10 and 12. Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points >either way (it's actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the >between 26 and 5. But what evidence is Bertil basing this on? He presented his _opinion_ on this issue earlier, and I consider it a 'vote' on this issue, not a fact. All other evidence shows the SSDF list to be _way_ overrated. The best evidence is Rebel's performance rating after playing many grandmasters; it is obviously playing at a level _far_ below the lowest person on that list below. I have sincere doubts that ChessTiger (rating >2700 on SSDF) is actually 200 points stronger than Rebel Century (performance rating against FIDE players <2500). Also, you are mixing up FIDE ELO and PCA ELO. FIDE ELO is on average much higher (~40 points) than the PCA ratings presented below. The original SSDF ratings were calibrated against FIDE ratings several years ago, so they cannot be compared to PCA rankings. James > >Q2. We know that the upper limit of improvement would be 60 points, so again - >we don't need a poll because we already know the answer: between 2 and 12. >Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points either way (it's >actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the between 26 and 2. > >Q3. We know from the Intel sponsored active tournament in London in 1994 (and >from the lack of protest by GK at not being allowed to play DB again) that once >GMs have been humiliated in public by the computers, they will stop allowing >them into the tournaments. While this answer has less weight of evidence behind >it than the other 2 answers, it's still a reasonably safe bet. > >To allow the CCC herd to vote on the first two issues would be like allowing the >luddites of the middle ages to vote on whether the earth is flat. You'll get a >decisive answer all right - but that answer will eventually be proven to be >wrong. > >-g > >>Top 50 >> >>1. Kasparov,Garry RUS 2838 140 >>2. Kramnik,Vladimir RUS 2734 114 >>3. Shirov,Alexei ESP 2723 181 >>4. Anand,Viswanathan IND 2722 118 >>5. Morozevich,Alexander RUS 2705 181 >>6. Leko,Peter HUN 2700 134 >>7. Kamsky,Gata USA 2696 184 >>8. Bareev,Evgeny RUS 2685 151 >>9. Adams,Michael ENG 2676 173 >>10. Topalov,Veselin BUL 2668 168 >>11. Short,Nigel D ENG 2666 148 >>12. Ivanchuk,Vassily UKR 2663 154 >>13. Gelfand,Boris ISR 2651 152 >>14. Azmaiparashvili,Zurab GEO 2651 131 >>15. Karpov,Anatoli RUS 2646 134 >>16. Dreev,Alexey RUS 2645 155 >>17. Georgiev,Kiril BUL 2643 156 >>18. Korchnoi,Viktor SUI 2642 152 >>19. Akopian,Vladimir ARM 2638 171 >>20. Movsesian,Sergei CZE 2634 159 >>21. Beliavsky,Alexander SLO 2633 166 >>22. Krasenkov,Mikhail POL 2629 191 >>23. Almasi,Zoltan HUN 2628 162 >>24. Svidler,Peter RUS 2628 160 >>25. Fedorov,Alexey BLR 2625 187 >>26. Timman,Jan H NED 2624 195 >>27. Nikolic,Predrag BIH 2622 140 >>28. Polgar,Judit HUN 2621 176 >>29. Seirawan,Yasser USA 2621 170 >>30. Khalifman,Alexander RUS 2620 162 >>31. Sokolov,Ivan BIH 2617 168 >>32. Rublevsky,Sergei RUS 2616 141 >>33. Salov,Valery RUS 2612 199 >>34. Gulko,Boris USA 2610 163 >>35. Hansen,Curt DEN 2607 158 >>36. Kobalija,Mikhael RUS 2607 166 >>37. Gurevich,Mikhail BEL 2605 139 >>38. Ponomariov,Ruslan UKR 2605 165 >>39. Hjartarson,Johann ISD 2604 175 >>40. Yusupov,Artur GER 2604 144 >>41. Sadler,Matthew ENG 2603 182 >>42. Granda Zuniga,Julio PER 2602 202 >>43. Wolff,Patrick USA 2602 186 >>44. Tkachev,Vladislav FRA 2600 145 >>45. Smirin,Ilia ISR 2599 182 >>46. Kasimdzhanov,Rustam UZB 2599 174 >>47. Khenkin,Igor RUS 2598 193 >>48. Lautier,Joel FRA 2596 157 >>49. Kharlov,Andrei RUS 2596 170 >>50. Magerramov,Elmar AZE 2595 187 >>51. Piket,Jeroen NED 2595 153 >>52. Bologan,Viorel MDA 2594 199 >> >>Source: http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/twic269.html >> >>Oh, I vote #50 for question 1, #15 for question 2, >>and no for question 3. >> >>Just my opinion. :) >> >>Best Regards, >>Chris Carson
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