Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Poll Question ?

Author: James Robertson

Date: 16:55:37 01/04/00

Go up one level in this thread


On January 04, 2000 at 18:06:12, Graham Laight wrote:

>On January 04, 2000 at 11:42:04, Chris Carson wrote:
>
>>Where would the SSDF top program (Chess Tiger) rank on
>>this list?  Where would the top SSDF program (could be different)
>>rank if the hardware was a PIII 800?  Will FIDE ever allow
>>programs in FIDE events?
>
>Q1. One of the SSDF team has told us that the list is over-rated by 20-30
>points, so we already know the answer - we don't need a poll. The answer is
>between 10 and 12. Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points
>either way (it's actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the
>between 26 and 5.

But what evidence is Bertil basing this on? He presented his _opinion_ on this
issue earlier, and I consider it a 'vote' on this issue, not a fact. All other
evidence shows the SSDF list to be _way_ overrated.

The best evidence is Rebel's performance rating after playing many grandmasters;
it is obviously playing at a level _far_ below the lowest person on that list
below. I have sincere doubts that ChessTiger (rating >2700 on SSDF) is actually
200 points stronger than Rebel Century (performance rating against FIDE players
<2500).

Also, you are mixing up FIDE ELO and PCA ELO. FIDE ELO is on average much higher
(~40 points) than the PCA ratings presented below. The original SSDF ratings
were calibrated against FIDE ratings several years ago, so they cannot be
compared to PCA rankings.

James


>
>Q2. We know that the upper limit of improvement would be 60 points, so again -
>we don't need a poll because we already know the answer: between 2 and 12.
>Allowing for the 95% confidence margin of error of 40 points either way (it's
>actually +44 -40 if you want to be totally exact) it would the between 26 and 2.
>
>Q3. We know from the Intel sponsored active tournament in London in 1994 (and
>from the lack of protest by GK at not being allowed to play DB again) that once
>GMs have been humiliated in public by the computers, they will stop allowing
>them into the tournaments. While this answer has less weight of evidence behind
>it than the other 2 answers, it's still a reasonably safe bet.
>
>To allow the CCC herd to vote on the first two issues would be like allowing the
>luddites of the middle ages to vote on whether the earth is flat. You'll get a
>decisive answer all right - but that answer will eventually be proven to be
>wrong.
>
>-g
>
>>Top 50
>>
>>1.  Kasparov,Garry          RUS     2838    140
>>2.  Kramnik,Vladimir        RUS     2734    114
>>3.  Shirov,Alexei           ESP     2723    181
>>4.  Anand,Viswanathan       IND     2722    118
>>5.  Morozevich,Alexander    RUS     2705    181
>>6.  Leko,Peter              HUN     2700    134
>>7.  Kamsky,Gata             USA     2696    184
>>8.  Bareev,Evgeny           RUS     2685    151
>>9.  Adams,Michael           ENG     2676    173
>>10. Topalov,Veselin         BUL     2668    168
>>11. Short,Nigel D           ENG     2666    148
>>12. Ivanchuk,Vassily        UKR     2663    154
>>13. Gelfand,Boris           ISR     2651    152
>>14. Azmaiparashvili,Zurab   GEO     2651    131
>>15. Karpov,Anatoli          RUS     2646    134
>>16. Dreev,Alexey            RUS     2645    155
>>17. Georgiev,Kiril          BUL     2643    156
>>18. Korchnoi,Viktor         SUI     2642    152
>>19. Akopian,Vladimir        ARM     2638    171
>>20. Movsesian,Sergei        CZE     2634    159
>>21. Beliavsky,Alexander     SLO     2633    166
>>22. Krasenkov,Mikhail       POL     2629    191
>>23. Almasi,Zoltan           HUN     2628    162
>>24. Svidler,Peter           RUS     2628    160
>>25. Fedorov,Alexey          BLR     2625    187
>>26. Timman,Jan H            NED     2624    195
>>27. Nikolic,Predrag         BIH     2622    140
>>28. Polgar,Judit            HUN     2621    176
>>29. Seirawan,Yasser         USA     2621    170
>>30. Khalifman,Alexander     RUS     2620    162
>>31. Sokolov,Ivan            BIH     2617    168
>>32. Rublevsky,Sergei        RUS     2616    141
>>33. Salov,Valery            RUS     2612    199
>>34. Gulko,Boris             USA     2610    163
>>35. Hansen,Curt             DEN     2607    158
>>36. Kobalija,Mikhael        RUS     2607    166
>>37. Gurevich,Mikhail        BEL     2605    139
>>38. Ponomariov,Ruslan       UKR     2605    165
>>39. Hjartarson,Johann       ISD     2604    175
>>40. Yusupov,Artur           GER     2604    144
>>41. Sadler,Matthew          ENG     2603    182
>>42. Granda Zuniga,Julio     PER     2602    202
>>43. Wolff,Patrick           USA     2602    186
>>44. Tkachev,Vladislav       FRA     2600    145
>>45. Smirin,Ilia             ISR     2599    182
>>46. Kasimdzhanov,Rustam     UZB     2599    174
>>47. Khenkin,Igor            RUS     2598    193
>>48. Lautier,Joel            FRA     2596    157
>>49. Kharlov,Andrei          RUS     2596    170
>>50. Magerramov,Elmar        AZE     2595    187
>>51. Piket,Jeroen            NED     2595    153
>>52. Bologan,Viorel          MDA     2594    199
>>
>>Source:  http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/twic269.html
>>
>>Oh, I vote #50 for question 1, #15 for question 2,
>>and no for question 3.
>>
>>Just my opinion.  :)
>>
>>Best Regards,
>>Chris Carson



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.