Author: Leon Stancliff
Date: 06:59:25 01/21/00
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On January 20, 2000 at 09:30:31, Chris Carson wrote: >On January 19, 2000 at 21:40:36, Leon Stancliff wrote: > >>Chris, >> >> I want to thank you for being objective on this computer-human discussion. The >>die hards may die hard, but again I say, the figures tell the story. The only >>unanswered question now is "How long before the competition becomes boring?" > >See: http://www.icdchess.com/ccc/message.html?90245 > >Thanks for the kind words. :) > >That is a good questions. My guess is 5 years and only the top 5 or >10 GM's (in match play against one program that they can study up on) >will have a plus record against the programs. I also think it is unlikely >we will see this. IMHO, we will see more statements like Kasparov and Fritz, >but it will refer to all time controls, not just Active. :) > >I think we might see more programs in League play, but we will see either >the programs playing each other (like Junior vs Rebel in a recent league >game) or the team will put it's lowest rated player against the program >to avoid having the teams top player loose. :) > >The time of program vs GM equality is at hand, enjoy it now. I am. :) > >Just my opinion (plus $2 will get you a cup of coffee). :) > >What is your opinion? > >Best Regards, >Chris Carson I find the whole issue fascinating. We no longer have races between automobiles and humans, as once was the case. The time will come when we will no longer have interest in the chess computer vs Grandmaster competition. It is impossible to forecast the time which will be required for this decline of interest. I have drawn curves of computer rating versus speed. The doubling rate decreases very fast when we get above 500 Mhz. Rather than being 60 Elo points per doubling in computer speed, it gets down to perhaps 15 points. A 1 Ghz machine will show very little Elo increase over a 600 Mhz. We do not have any Grandmasters with more ability that the world champ. Thus we must depend upon software and hardware efficiency. It looks like the computers have already matched the average Grandmaster on the Fide list. It also looks like it will take a L-O-N-G time to reach the top ten.
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