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Subject: Re: Cadaqués: Final Elo statistics

Author: Chessfun

Date: 07:43:35 02/10/00

Go up one level in this thread


On February 09, 2000 at 18:18:29, Frank Schubert wrote:

>General statistics:
>
>Games        :    420
>
>White Wins   :    153 (36.4 %)
>Black Wins   :     96 (22.9 %)
>Draws        :    171 (40.7 %)
>
>White Perf.  : 56.8 %
>Black Perf.  : 43.2 %
>
>ECO A =     54 Games (12.9 %)
>ECO B =    118 Games (28.1 %)
>ECO C =     54 Games (12.9 %)
>ECO D =    100 Games (23.8 %)
>ECO E =     94 Games (22.4 %)
>
>
>
>Elo rating list:
>
>
>  Program                Elo    +   -   Games   Score   Av.Op.  Draws
>
>1 Junior 6.0           : 2666   55  47   120    60.8 %   2589   40.0 %
>2 Fritz 6a             : 2645   57  44   120    57.5 %   2593   41.7 %
>3 Nimzo 7.32           : 2623   61  41   120    53.8 %   2597   44.2 %
>4 Rebel-Tiger 12.0e    : 2605   64  36   120    50.8 %   2599   51.7 %
>5 Hiarcs 7.32          : 2585   47  62   120    47.5 %   2603   33.3 %
>6 Shredder 4           : 2575   46  60   120    45.8 %   2604   35.0 %
>7 Century              : 2500   50  51   120    33.8 %   2617   39.2 %
>
>
>After 120 games for each program the margins of error are in the range of
>+- 50 Elo points. So what does this mean now ? Well, if Enrique would repeat
>this tournament, then with a probability of 95 % the new Elo rating of Junior
>would lie between 2721 (= 2666 + 55) and 2619 (= 2666 - 47). But one must take
>into consideration that the probability for the new Elo value being still 2666
>is significantly higher than being 2721 or 2619. Similar statements are
>valid for the other programs. Therefore the rating list above can be seen as
>the rating list with the highest probability of all lists. But of course there
>is still a good chance that after a new Cadaques tournament the winner would be
>Fritz, Nimzo or Tiger.
>
>
>Individual statistics:
>
>(1) Junior 6.0                : 120 (+ 49,= 48,- 23), 60.8 %
>
>Shredder 4                    :  20 (+  6,= 10,-  4), 55.0 %
>Fritz 6a                      :  20 (+  6,= 12,-  2), 60.0 %
>Nimzo 7.32                    :  20 (+  9,=  8,-  3), 65.0 %
>Rebel-Tiger 12.0e             :  20 (+  8,=  8,-  4), 60.0 %
>Century                       :  20 (+ 13,=  4,-  3), 75.0 %
>Hiarcs 7.32                   :  20 (+  7,=  6,-  7), 50.0 %

Excellent tourney...great job by both Enrique and yourself.
Can you please tell me of the 6 opponents of Junior which
were with J6 and which were with J6a.
Thanks.



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