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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Dave Gomboc

Date: 18:22:02 03/03/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 03, 2000 at 17:16:04, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On March 03, 2000 at 15:18:09, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>
>>On March 03, 2000 at 08:09:47, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On March 03, 2000 at 03:44:48, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 02, 2000 at 18:26:09, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>>>>>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>>>>>>guns.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>>>>>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>>>>>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>>>>>>Do the math:
>>>>>>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>180 months equals 15 years
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>>>>>>2015)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>What about today?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>>>>>on the IBM site.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Ed
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
>>>>>10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
>>>>>but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
>>>>>we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
>>>>>null-move or anything, + their extensions.
>>>>>
>>>>>This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
>>>>>point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
>>>>>(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
>>>>>depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
>>>>>full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.
>>>>
>>>>Double-check that.  11(6): 17-ply search, yes.  _full-width_ 17-ply search, I
>>>>don't think so.  The top of the software search is full-width, the bottom of the
>>>>software search is selective, and the hardware search is full-width again.  At
>>>>least, that is my understanding.  The interesting question is how many of the 11
>>>>in software were full-width... and my recollection is that the answer is not 11.
>>>>
>>>>Dave
>>>
>>>
>>>There is _no_ selective search in DB.  They do "selective extensions" in the
>>>software, but _every_ move is searched to at least the depth given.  IE if you
>>>see 11(6), then *every* move at the root is searched to at _least_ 17 plies
>>>deep, not counting the capture search.  And most are searched deeper due to the
>>>extensions.
>>>
>>>_None_ are searched to less than that depth.  DB _never_ had any sort of forward
>>>pruning in the normal search, although it did have a sort of futility cutoff in
>>>the capture search only.
>>>
>>>This is all well-documented.  Hsu didn't believe in selectivity at all when
>>>applied to pruning.
>>>
>>>The answer to your question _is_ "11".
>>
>>It's well-documented for DT.  Where is it well-documented for DB?  I know Hsu
>>didn't like pruning, but by itself that doesn't mean that they didn't do any in
>>DB.  Does he say so in his book?
>>
>>My recollection of a conversation with a member of the DB team in 1997 is that
>>there was some selectivity going on in the software search, in the manner that I
>>described above.
>>
>>Dave
>
>
>All I can say is what I have been told, which is that "the only selectivity
>we do is in the extensions, _not_ in forward pruning."  In his book (or in
>something he posted somewhere, maybe the IEEE article) he mentioned that he
>would like to try something selective (like null-move) in his _next_ chip,
>when he was talking about doing one.  That suggests to me that he isn't in
>the current DB...

Okay, but remember that I did agree that the _chip_'s search was full-width. ;-)

Dave



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