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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 14:16:04 03/03/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 03, 2000 at 15:18:09, Dave Gomboc wrote:

>On March 03, 2000 at 08:09:47, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On March 03, 2000 at 03:44:48, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>>
>>>On March 02, 2000 at 18:26:09, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>>>>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>>>>>guns.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>>>>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>>>>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>>>>>Do the math:
>>>>>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>180 months equals 15 years
>>>>>>
>>>>>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>>>>>2015)
>>>>>
>>>>>What about today?
>>>>>
>>>>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>>>>on the IBM site.
>>>>>
>>>>>Ed
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
>>>>10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
>>>>but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
>>>>we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
>>>>null-move or anything, + their extensions.
>>>>
>>>>This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
>>>>point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
>>>>(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
>>>>depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
>>>>full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.
>>>
>>>Double-check that.  11(6): 17-ply search, yes.  _full-width_ 17-ply search, I
>>>don't think so.  The top of the software search is full-width, the bottom of the
>>>software search is selective, and the hardware search is full-width again.  At
>>>least, that is my understanding.  The interesting question is how many of the 11
>>>in software were full-width... and my recollection is that the answer is not 11.
>>>
>>>Dave
>>
>>
>>There is _no_ selective search in DB.  They do "selective extensions" in the
>>software, but _every_ move is searched to at least the depth given.  IE if you
>>see 11(6), then *every* move at the root is searched to at _least_ 17 plies
>>deep, not counting the capture search.  And most are searched deeper due to the
>>extensions.
>>
>>_None_ are searched to less than that depth.  DB _never_ had any sort of forward
>>pruning in the normal search, although it did have a sort of futility cutoff in
>>the capture search only.
>>
>>This is all well-documented.  Hsu didn't believe in selectivity at all when
>>applied to pruning.
>>
>>The answer to your question _is_ "11".
>
>It's well-documented for DT.  Where is it well-documented for DB?  I know Hsu
>didn't like pruning, but by itself that doesn't mean that they didn't do any in
>DB.  Does he say so in his book?
>
>My recollection of a conversation with a member of the DB team in 1997 is that
>there was some selectivity going on in the software search, in the manner that I
>described above.
>
>Dave


All I can say is what I have been told, which is that "the only selectivity
we do is in the extensions, _not_ in forward pruning."  In his book (or in
something he posted somewhere, maybe the IEEE article) he mentioned that he
would like to try something selective (like null-move) in his _next_ chip,
when he was talking about doing one.  That suggests to me that he isn't in
the current DB...



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