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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Dave Gomboc

Date: 12:18:09 03/03/00

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On March 03, 2000 at 08:09:47, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On March 03, 2000 at 03:44:48, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>
>>On March 02, 2000 at 18:26:09, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>>>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>>>>guns.
>>>>>
>>>>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>>>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>>>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>>>>Do the math:
>>>>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>>>>
>>>>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>>>>
>>>>>180 months equals 15 years
>>>>>
>>>>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>>>>2015)
>>>>
>>>>What about today?
>>>>
>>>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>>>on the IBM site.
>>>>
>>>>Ed
>>>
>>>
>>>No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
>>>10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
>>>but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
>>>we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
>>>null-move or anything, + their extensions.
>>>
>>>This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
>>>point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
>>>(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
>>>depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
>>>full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.
>>
>>Double-check that.  11(6): 17-ply search, yes.  _full-width_ 17-ply search, I
>>don't think so.  The top of the software search is full-width, the bottom of the
>>software search is selective, and the hardware search is full-width again.  At
>>least, that is my understanding.  The interesting question is how many of the 11
>>in software were full-width... and my recollection is that the answer is not 11.
>>
>>Dave
>
>
>There is _no_ selective search in DB.  They do "selective extensions" in the
>software, but _every_ move is searched to at least the depth given.  IE if you
>see 11(6), then *every* move at the root is searched to at _least_ 17 plies
>deep, not counting the capture search.  And most are searched deeper due to the
>extensions.
>
>_None_ are searched to less than that depth.  DB _never_ had any sort of forward
>pruning in the normal search, although it did have a sort of futility cutoff in
>the capture search only.
>
>This is all well-documented.  Hsu didn't believe in selectivity at all when
>applied to pruning.
>
>The answer to your question _is_ "11".

It's well-documented for DT.  Where is it well-documented for DB?  I know Hsu
didn't like pruning, but by itself that doesn't mean that they didn't do any in
DB.  Does he say so in his book?

My recollection of a conversation with a member of the DB team in 1997 is that
there was some selectivity going on in the software search, in the manner that I
described above.

Dave



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