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Subject: Re: rating delta of 60-100 elo

Author: Wayne Lowrance

Date: 17:21:34 04/12/00

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On April 12, 2000 at 18:05:43, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On April 12, 2000 at 17:49:23, Wayne Lowrance wrote:
>
>>A uscf expert player friend of mine of about 40 years ago told me a player 100
>>uscf points higher than its opponent could/should expect to win 7 to 8 games out
>>of ten. I took that to mean 70 to 80 percent as 10 games is too few.
>>
>>Can the same be expected of chess programs playing each other when the cpu clock
>>is doubled on one of the programs. (60 to 100 ELO points superior).
>
>Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5
>Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935
>Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253
>Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098
>Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091
>Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402
>Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534
>Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721
>Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099
>Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197
>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231
>
>Remember that these numbers are *averages* and do not apply to a single result.
>In other words, it is not unimaginable for someone 100 points below in ELO to
>have a 4-0 result against the better player.
>
>Win expectancies are related to the pool for which data is available, and the
>larger the number of contests, the more secure the figures are.

Thank you guys, I have it !



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