Author: Wayne Lowrance
Date: 17:21:34 04/12/00
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On April 12, 2000 at 18:05:43, Dann Corbit wrote: >On April 12, 2000 at 17:49:23, Wayne Lowrance wrote: > >>A uscf expert player friend of mine of about 40 years ago told me a player 100 >>uscf points higher than its opponent could/should expect to win 7 to 8 games out >>of ten. I took that to mean 70 to 80 percent as 10 games is too few. >> >>Can the same be expected of chess programs playing each other when the cpu clock >>is doubled on one of the programs. (60 to 100 ELO points superior). > >Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 >Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 >Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 >Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 >Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 >Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 >Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 >Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 >Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 >Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 >Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 > >Remember that these numbers are *averages* and do not apply to a single result. >In other words, it is not unimaginable for someone 100 points below in ELO to >have a 4-0 result against the better player. > >Win expectancies are related to the pool for which data is available, and the >larger the number of contests, the more secure the figures are. Thank you guys, I have it !
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