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Subject: Re: Continuation re: I am laughing, plus Rating Forecasting

Author: Stephen A. Boak

Date: 04:30:53 05/20/00

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On May 20, 2000 at 03:21:45, Dave Gomboc wrote:

>On May 19, 2000 at 22:58:27, Stephen A. Boak wrote:
>
>>The biggest humor in Dave's prior posting (an irony really) is that he seems to
>>*jump* from current discussions regarding measuring how well a program has done
>>(our perennial question--are top programs GMs *now* or not!) in the past, to
>>thinking about predicting better (smaller SEE, Standard Error of Estimate or
>>Standard Error of Forecast) how a program will do (in the future).
>
>It might have seemed like a jump, but the discussion regarding measuring whether
>top programs are GM strength *now* or not isn't interesting to me, so it's IMO
>reasonable that if I have a comment to make in the thread that some topic shift
>will be involved.
>
>Dave

Hi Dave.  No offense or implication of unreasonableness was intended.  I was not
trying to make a pointed or sarcastic remark about thread changes.  I'm more
flexible than that (I hope).

My humor and smiles were self directed.  The direction of your comments and
topic shift is fine by me (I am interested in that also, like you).

My musing was that this bulletin board has so much spirited (kind summation!)
discussion about how strong programs really are, and debate about how to
calculate that strength, and the new thrust of trying to forecast how well they
will do in the very immediate future struck me as a whole new world of fun and
controversy.

There are no exact methods of forecasting.  There are zillions of ways.  There
is no perfect science (or math) for forecasting such things, only ideas and
implementations and endless verification of assumptions and results and trials
galore.  [I'm not lecturing you personally with these remarks--I'm simply
addressing our readership in general]

I like the challenge of developing forecasting models using the computer to
help.  Great place for creativity and self-expression.

Anyway, thanks for your fine remarks.  Take care,
   --Steve




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