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Subject: Re: A New Self-Play Experiment -- Diminishing Returns Shown with 95% Conf.

Author: Jouni Uski

Date: 03:11:50 05/25/00

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On May 25, 2000 at 05:57:44, Enrique Irazoqui wrote:

>On May 24, 2000 at 18:00:12, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On May 24, 2000 at 15:08:15, Ernst A. Heinz wrote:
>>
>>>Dear Fellow Computer-Chess Enthusiasts,
>>>
>>>In view of the current discussion about diminishing returns in the thread
>>>"Ply Depth in Relation to ELO again", I like to share the results of my
>>>latest self-play experiment with you.
>>>
>>>The stunning outcome of the new experiment is that it shows the existence
>>>of diminishing returns for additional search in computer chess self-play
>>>with 95% statistical confidence, exemplified by the program "Fritz 6"!
>>>
>>>The title and abstract of my M.I.T. LCS Technical Report on the
>>>experiment follow below.
>>>
>>>***********************************************************************
>>>
>>>        ``A New Self-Play Experiment in Computer Chess''
>>>
>>>                         ABSTRACT
>>>
>>>This paper presents the results of a new self-play experiment in
>>>computer chess. It is the first such experiment ever to feature search
>>>depths beyond 9 plies and thousands of games for every single match.
>>>Overall, we executed 17,150 self-play games (1,050--3,000 per match)
>>>in one "calibration" match and seven "depth X+1 <=> X" handicap
>>>matches at fixed iteration depths ranging from 5--12 plies. For
>>>the experiment to be realistic and independently repeatable, we relied
>>>on a state-of-the-art commercial contestant: "Fritz6", one of the
>>>strongest modern chess programs available. The main result of our new
>>>experiment is that it shows the existence of diminishing returns for
>>>additional search in computer chess self-play with 95% statistical
>>>confidence, exemplified by the program "Fritz6". The diminishing
>>>returns manifest themselves by declining rates of won games and
>>>reversely increasing rates of drawn games for the deeper searching
>>>program versions. The rate of lost games, however, remains quite
>>>steady for the whole depth range of 5--12 plies.
>>>
>>>***********************************************************************
>>>
>>>Please find the full report in gzip'ed PostScript format at the URL
>>><http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/ps/new_exp.ps.gz>.
>>>
>>>Any comments welcome!
>>>
>>>=Ernst=
>>>
>>>P.S.
>>>
>>>Electronic preprints of my earlier publications on the relationship
>>>between computing power and playing strength of chess programs are
>>>available from http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/ and the WWW
>>>pages of "DarkThought" at http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/dt/.
>>
>>
>>The idea is ok, but I don't like the concept of playing program X vs itself
>>with different depths.  Your conclusion can easily be right for Fritz, but
>>wrong for other programs...  It would be hard to draw conclusions based on
>>testing only one program that is known to be very fast but not very 'smart'.
>
>In my opinion, this thing about Fritz being "fast and dumb" is a common place
>with little grounds. Fritz is certainly fast, but not more dumb than anything
>else I know, including "smart" programs like Hiarcs, Rebel and Mchess. Since
>these programs don't take advantage of their "knowledge" when playing the so
>called "fast and dumb", we should start questioning their smartness. Same for
>the way they all fall for anti-computer traps. Rather than fast versus clever,
>what I see is variations on the same theme.
>
>Enrique

I agree. Actually Fritz is no more so fast. E.g. LG2000 is much faster and even
Junior is a little faster!

Jouni



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