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Subject: Re: A New Self-Play Experiment -- Diminishing Returns Shown with 95% Conf.

Author: Enrique Irazoqui

Date: 03:34:24 05/25/00

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On May 25, 2000 at 06:11:50, Jouni Uski wrote:

>On May 25, 2000 at 05:57:44, Enrique Irazoqui wrote:
>
>>On May 24, 2000 at 18:00:12, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On May 24, 2000 at 15:08:15, Ernst A. Heinz wrote:
>>>
>>>>Dear Fellow Computer-Chess Enthusiasts,
>>>>
>>>>In view of the current discussion about diminishing returns in the thread
>>>>"Ply Depth in Relation to ELO again", I like to share the results of my
>>>>latest self-play experiment with you.
>>>>
>>>>The stunning outcome of the new experiment is that it shows the existence
>>>>of diminishing returns for additional search in computer chess self-play
>>>>with 95% statistical confidence, exemplified by the program "Fritz 6"!
>>>>
>>>>The title and abstract of my M.I.T. LCS Technical Report on the
>>>>experiment follow below.
>>>>
>>>>***********************************************************************
>>>>
>>>>        ``A New Self-Play Experiment in Computer Chess''
>>>>
>>>>                         ABSTRACT
>>>>
>>>>This paper presents the results of a new self-play experiment in
>>>>computer chess. It is the first such experiment ever to feature search
>>>>depths beyond 9 plies and thousands of games for every single match.
>>>>Overall, we executed 17,150 self-play games (1,050--3,000 per match)
>>>>in one "calibration" match and seven "depth X+1 <=> X" handicap
>>>>matches at fixed iteration depths ranging from 5--12 plies. For
>>>>the experiment to be realistic and independently repeatable, we relied
>>>>on a state-of-the-art commercial contestant: "Fritz6", one of the
>>>>strongest modern chess programs available. The main result of our new
>>>>experiment is that it shows the existence of diminishing returns for
>>>>additional search in computer chess self-play with 95% statistical
>>>>confidence, exemplified by the program "Fritz6". The diminishing
>>>>returns manifest themselves by declining rates of won games and
>>>>reversely increasing rates of drawn games for the deeper searching
>>>>program versions. The rate of lost games, however, remains quite
>>>>steady for the whole depth range of 5--12 plies.
>>>>
>>>>***********************************************************************
>>>>
>>>>Please find the full report in gzip'ed PostScript format at the URL
>>>><http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/ps/new_exp.ps.gz>.
>>>>
>>>>Any comments welcome!
>>>>
>>>>=Ernst=
>>>>
>>>>P.S.
>>>>
>>>>Electronic preprints of my earlier publications on the relationship
>>>>between computing power and playing strength of chess programs are
>>>>available from http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/ and the WWW
>>>>pages of "DarkThought" at http://supertech.lcs.mit.edu/~heinz/dt/.
>>>
>>>
>>>The idea is ok, but I don't like the concept of playing program X vs itself
>>>with different depths.  Your conclusion can easily be right for Fritz, but
>>>wrong for other programs...  It would be hard to draw conclusions based on
>>>testing only one program that is known to be very fast but not very 'smart'.
>>
>>In my opinion, this thing about Fritz being "fast and dumb" is a common place
>>with little grounds. Fritz is certainly fast, but not more dumb than anything
>>else I know, including "smart" programs like Hiarcs, Rebel and Mchess. Since
>>these programs don't take advantage of their "knowledge" when playing the so
>>called "fast and dumb", we should start questioning their smartness. Same for
>>the way they all fall for anti-computer traps. Rather than fast versus clever,
>>what I see is variations on the same theme.
>>
>>Enrique
>
>I agree. Actually Fritz is no more so fast. E.g. LG2000 is much faster and even
>Junior is a little faster!

Do you mean faster in NPS? Because tactically Fritz 6a is the fastest of all. So
let's see: Fast and dumb versus slower and dumb versus slooooow and dumb, etc.
Common denominator: dumb. On the other hand, humans are very dumb for not
realizing in a split second that 8/8/8/1p6/4P3/2K1P3/k7/8 b - - 0 1 is a mate in
128. I mean, dumb for a machine may not mean the same as dumb for a human.

Enrique

>Jouni



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