Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 06:24:42 06/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 12, 2000 at 05:16:36, Jason Williamson wrote: >On June 08, 2000 at 20:46:47, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >> >>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>> >>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>> >>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>> >>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>you point out. >>>> >>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>6.3%. >>> >>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>> >>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>> >>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>> >>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>> >>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>> >>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>> >>>Uri >> >> >>The thing I am most concerned about is multiple consecutive games. I don't do >>_any_ testing by having crafty play multiple games. All of my playing is done >>where for each game, the engine is started completely over. It is more than >>possible that _if_ a series of games are played with the same version, that >>something bad could happen: (1) something might not get reset properly; (b) >>a bug might actually clobber something that will then stay clobbered for many >>games. >> >>I will try to do some testing on this to see if everything seems to be working >>right... but I am definitely concerned that just sending a "new" to start a new >>game could cause problems... > >What I am a little confused is: Isn't the SSDF list match done with the Crafty >from Chessbase? As far as I know this engine is restarted before every match. > >Jason I don't know how any of that works. If you are correct, that is the way I would like to see matches played. IE using winboard, you have the option of either starting the engine over after each game in a match, or reusing the same engine over and over. As far as chessbase stuff goes, I am ignorant. I only run Linux, which means no ChessBase stuff runs here at all.
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