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Subject: Re: I don't think wmcc results is enough reliable, isn't it?

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 21:58:13 08/25/00

Go up one level in this thread


On August 25, 2000 at 21:56:14, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On August 25, 2000 at 01:29:22, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On August 25, 2000 at 01:17:06, Alvaro Polo wrote:
>>
>>>On August 24, 2000 at 23:17:53, Bruce Moreland wrote:
>>>
>>>>On August 24, 2000 at 22:48:47, Michael Fuhrmann wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On August 24, 2000 at 22:01:39, Bruce Moreland wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On August 24, 2000 at 18:53:53, Eran wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Different chess programs use different processor speed, and the results may not
>>>>>>>be fair. If Junior uses Pentium III 1000 Mhz instead of 700 Mhz, Junior might be
>>>>>>>a bit stronger and belong to the group of top chess programs, Shredder, Fritz,
>>>>>>>and Nimzo. I assume that if all chess programs use the same processor speed
>>>>>>>exactly, for instance Pentium III 1000 Mhz, the wmcc results will be enough
>>>>>>>reliable and fair. Do you agree with it?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Eran
>>>>>>
>>>>>>As for "fair", this is not a uniform platform tournament.  If you do a uniform
>>>>>>platform tournament, you get "fair".  If you go to one that isn't, and you
>>>>>>expect "fair", it's better to stay home, because it won't be.  It's not uniform
>>>>>>platform.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If you expect "reliable", even in a uniform platform tournament, you aren't
>>>>>>going to get that, either.  If you deduce a perfectly accurate rating for each
>>>>>>participant, and simulate the tournament a few dozen times, you'll get wildly
>>>>>>different results.  The "best" program won't win every time.  The "best" program
>>>>>>might not even finish in the top half.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>bruce
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Sounds like there's no good reason for holding the event at all, since the
>>>>>result doesn't tell us anything meaningful.
>>>>
>>>>Right.  There isn't a reason to hold the World Series, the Olympics, the World
>>>>Cup, or any other sporting event, either.
>>>>
>>>
>>>It is curious what you say. In plain chess (not computer chess), if there is a
>>>tournement where Kasparov participates in, you can expect him to win. Sometimes
>>>he wont, of course, but I don't think it is probable that he won't finish on the
>>>top half. It looks like chess is much more reliable than computer chess. I
>>>wonder why.
>>
>>If the difference in the rating between the first program and the other programs
>>is big enough then you can be practically sure that the top program is going to
>>finish in the top half and the same is for humans.
>>
>>Uri
>
>I don't see how.  Try flipping a coin 5 times, and repeat it 100 times.  In
>more than one of those 100 trials, you will get 5 heads or 5 tails... which is
>statistically correct on one hand, and statistically impossible on the other.

I said that if the difference in rating is big enough you can be sure that the
top program will be in the first half.

I also think that chess is more complicated than throwing coins.

You have draws.
Probability for white and probability for black are different and
It is also important to do a good opening preperation in order to go for
positions that the opponent does not know to play well.

Uri



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