Author: Jonathan Lee
Date: 13:51:20 09/06/00
Go up one level in this thread
On September 06, 2000 at 00:31:06, Peter Kappler wrote: >On September 05, 2000 at 20:44:18, Jonathan Lee wrote: > >>On September 05, 2000 at 16:04:59, Peter Kappler wrote: >> >>>On September 05, 2000 at 15:47:33, Jonathan Lee wrote: >>> >>>> Statistically speaking (although imperfect and controversial) does doubling >>>>the computer speed means adding 30 rating points for FIDE or SSDF? >>>> I know people will say more or less, depends on time control, and it's not >>>>linear at all. >>>> Hopefully the top notch software have similar variables to each other. >>>> Jonathan (64th message) >>> >>> >>>Everything I've seen says 70 points per doubling. >>> >>>The question is whether or not this trend continues indefinitely. My personal >>>opinion is that it must gradually taper off with increasing depth. >>> >>>--Pete >>Allow me to be more specific: >> >> Let's make the time control 40 moves in 2 hours and sudden death 2 more >>hours with human vs. machine. >>Humans also have limits or tapering off on the middle game too. >>Assume you have a GM database, how many GHZ will it take to match the middle >>game move on a given position of both players who are top 10 in the world? >> >> Upon using the fastest PC (currently 1 GHZ), you can match the middle game >>position and move "in a number of hours". >>Since 40 moves in 2 hours equals 3 minutes per move, in 24 hours when the move >>has a match, it means a 480 GHZ computer could equal the IGM. >>24 hours divided by 3 minutes equals 480 on a 1 GHZ computer. >>2^9=512 which almost equals 480 GHZ. 512==480 >>9 times 70 = 630 rating points >>I agree it MUST taper off; about 600 rating points is way too much. >>FIDE rating 2500 + 600 = out of bounds >> >> Of course, GM knows that closed pawn structure and queens on the board adds >>complexity and the best way to beat the machine. Disregarding complexity, at >>some GHZ the computer reaches a 2800, 2850, and 2900 FIDE ratings under >>tournament time controls. >> That is my question. You could use Fritz 6 or the other close contenders. >> We could also compare Deeper Blue moves (positions) with the current PC also >>as long it takes about 24 hours on 1 GHZ. >> Jonathan (65th message) > > >The only way to answer your question is by getting a bunch of GMs to play slow >time control games against computers. You can take Junior's recent performance >in Dortmund as a reference point. It had a performance rating of 2700 on a >machine with an effective speed of ~4GHz. > >I doubt that the 70 points per doubling rule holds up in comp vs human games. >Extra speed is probably less important against humans. > >--Peter Yes I saw the 3 losses of Fritz 6 at Frankfurt and the 2 losses of Junior 6 at Dortmund. The common denominator of those 5 games is a closed pawn structure and queens on the board which is I said "complexity". If the 2 software packages actually attained 2700 FIDE at 4 GHZ and 5.6 GHZ, then 2800 FIDE might be 100 GHZ. Jonathan (68th message)
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