Author: Stephen A. Boak
Date: 12:52:11 11/18/00
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On November 18, 2000 at 14:47:09, Uri Blass wrote: >2-3.46 times faster mean 70-130 elo better based on the assumption of 70 elo >from doubling the speed and I do not consider deminishing return from speed. > >It means not more than one point in 6 rounds. Uri, my friend, you forget your statistics (mathematics). You did not say 'on the average', but I assume that is what you meant. tsk tsk! You know you can't talk in such absolute figures! There is a good reason for the concept "bell-shaped curves". It reminds us that measurements and performances vary from time to time. That is why the concept "average" has a useful meaning. Many results are above or below average. Is the current result of GambitTiger above or below average? How can you tell, from a single tournament result? How can you extrapolate (predict) the result of using a faster computer (on the 'average') if you don't think about this issue? > >The difference between Junior and Gambittiger is bigger than one point so the >expected results from better hardware are not enough for gambit to win the >tournament. > It is possible that the current difference in score between Junior and GambitTiger would not be greatly altered (change of tournament leader) based on GT using a faster CPU. On the other hand, GambitTiger may be performing below its average level in this particular tournament. [Note: its opponents may be playing a bit above their average levels.] Its results may be a bit below 'average', relative to the opposition. If so, it might easily perform at or above average, in another tournament. Combined with a faster CPU, it might even win another such tournament. I don't say 'will' or 'would', but only 'may' or 'possibly'. I don't forget my statistics! --Steve <snip> >Uri
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