Author: Bob Durrett
Date: 07:43:52 11/20/00
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On November 19, 2000 at 21:54:01, James Swafford wrote: >On November 19, 2000 at 20:46:48, stuart taylor wrote: > >>We are indeed seeing the new upcoming generation of chess programs (ready for >>2001) losing many games to the outgoing generation (2000). >> And during the past year, we have often seen, even many games sometimes being >>won by the 1999 program aginst a 2000 one. >> But normally the newer generation wins slightly more. Maybe that is largely >>because they were tested over and over again, to make sure of that, before they >>were ever released. >> But how about testing 2001 programs against 1999 ones. Can we be sure that >>2001 would win a vast majority, or even more important, atleast, never be >>convincingly beaten, even if it has to lose the occasional game (against a 1999 >>version)? >> Hiarcs, by the way, as far as I understand, is a 1998 program. 7.0, 7.01, and >>7.32 are the exact same program, and it still holds its own quite well today (it >>would even be compatible with 2001), but it's getting on the lower end, whereas >>in 1998 it was on the top of many rating lists. >> But how is this exactly? and with 1999 in general? >>Maybe Hiarcs 7.** will not be rendered helpless, even by the top programs in >>2005! >>S.Taylor > > >If I understand you correctly, you're saying something like: > >A=2000 program beats 1999 program >B=2001 program beats 2000 program >C=2001 program beats 1999 program > >P(A) > .5 [probability that 2000 beats 1999 > 50%] >P(B) > .5 >What about P(C | B)? [probability of C given B] > >My gut feeling (and my math) tells me that, more often that not, >2001 programs will beat 1999 programs. :-) > >-- >James Perhaps more interesting would be P(B | C).
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