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Subject: Re: A idea to foresee how strong chesscomputers will be in future.

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 04:50:44 12/03/00

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On December 03, 2000 at 05:18:18, walter irvin wrote:

>On December 02, 2000 at 16:00:50, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On December 02, 2000 at 15:45:55, Georg Langrath wrote:
>>
>>>On December 02, 2000 at 14:58:45, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On December 02, 2000 at 13:33:07, walter irvin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On December 02, 2000 at 12:06:17, Georg Langrath wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>It is interesting how strong chesscomputers will be in future only depending on
>>>>>>hardware. Couldn’t you get an idea if you let  two computers play against each
>>>>>>others with auto 232? One of the computer had usual time controls and the other
>>>>>>ten times longer time. Then you see what ELO the computer got that had the long
>>>>>>time controls. In that way you could foresee how strong computers could get,
>>>>>>when they are ten times faster than today.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Georg
>>>>>the test you want to run would be better if ponder were left off .because if the
>>>>>program that gets less time predicts the move then the fact that it gets less
>>>>>time will be cancelled out .so your test would be good if ponder was off on both
>>>>>programs .
>>>>
>>>>I think that you can do the test with ponder on and you do not need that one
>>>>program will get more time.
>>>>
>>>>The only thing that you need is different computers when one of them is 10 times
>>>>faster.
>>>>
>>>>You can do a match between programs on p100 and programs on p1000 when the time
>>>>control is 20 hours/40 moves and get the results.
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>Yes a good idea but there is one question. Is the difference in ELO the same
>>>between p100 and p1000 as between p1000 and p10000? With my idea you can examine
>>>that. I think that the difference is bigger between p100 and p1000 than between
>>>p1000 and p10000. But I am not sure. I would examine myself, but I don't have
>>>two computers.
>>>
>>>Georg
>>
>>I assumed that the faster computer is only 10 times faster and that it is the
>>only difference in both cases.
>>
>>If this assumption is correct then I see no problem.
>>
>>I suggested time control of 20 hours/40 moves in order to predict the result in
>>2 hours/40 moves between p10000 and p1000.
>>
>>Uri
>at first sight your idea seems perfect .then i thought about chess itself .i
>believe that the search tree for a 1ghz computer gets so big that a 10 ghz
>computer will not make much head way .so to be 1000% sure of this all a person
>would have to do is use 1 computer with ponder off both programs .

I prefer different computers with ponder on because normal games are with ponder
on.

give 1 program
>3 min the other 30 mins per move .i think a good test would be cm6000 i can play
>it vs itself at those kinds of odds .


It may be interesting to know the results but a better test is by games between
different programs because I am not sure if the difference in rating is the same
when you play the program against itself.


i still believe that a 10 ghz computer does
>not play much better at slow chess than a 1 ghz computer,maybe 100 elo .between
>a 100 mhz and a 1ghz is about 500 elo .

I assume that 1ghz is exactly 10 times faster than 100 mhz and that 10 ghz is
exactly 10 times faster than 1 ghz.

I do not think that the difference between 100mhz and 1ghz is about 500 elo.
Assuming 70 elo for doubling you get about 160 elo difference.

I believe that the difference between 1ghz and 10 ghz is smaller because of
diminishing returns and I guess 100 elo difference.

Uri



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