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Subject: Re: A idea to foresee how strong chesscomputers will be in future.

Author: walter irvin

Date: 02:18:18 12/03/00

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On December 02, 2000 at 16:00:50, Uri Blass wrote:

>On December 02, 2000 at 15:45:55, Georg Langrath wrote:
>
>>On December 02, 2000 at 14:58:45, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On December 02, 2000 at 13:33:07, walter irvin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On December 02, 2000 at 12:06:17, Georg Langrath wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>It is interesting how strong chesscomputers will be in future only depending on
>>>>>hardware. Couldn’t you get an idea if you let  two computers play against each
>>>>>others with auto 232? One of the computer had usual time controls and the other
>>>>>ten times longer time. Then you see what ELO the computer got that had the long
>>>>>time controls. In that way you could foresee how strong computers could get,
>>>>>when they are ten times faster than today.
>>>>>
>>>>>Georg
>>>>the test you want to run would be better if ponder were left off .because if the
>>>>program that gets less time predicts the move then the fact that it gets less
>>>>time will be cancelled out .so your test would be good if ponder was off on both
>>>>programs .
>>>
>>>I think that you can do the test with ponder on and you do not need that one
>>>program will get more time.
>>>
>>>The only thing that you need is different computers when one of them is 10 times
>>>faster.
>>>
>>>You can do a match between programs on p100 and programs on p1000 when the time
>>>control is 20 hours/40 moves and get the results.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Yes a good idea but there is one question. Is the difference in ELO the same
>>between p100 and p1000 as between p1000 and p10000? With my idea you can examine
>>that. I think that the difference is bigger between p100 and p1000 than between
>>p1000 and p10000. But I am not sure. I would examine myself, but I don't have
>>two computers.
>>
>>Georg
>
>I assumed that the faster computer is only 10 times faster and that it is the
>only difference in both cases.
>
>If this assumption is correct then I see no problem.
>
>I suggested time control of 20 hours/40 moves in order to predict the result in
>2 hours/40 moves between p10000 and p1000.
>
>Uri
at first sight your idea seems perfect .then i thought about chess itself .i
believe that the search tree for a 1ghz computer gets so big that a 10 ghz
computer will not make much head way .so to be 1000% sure of this all a person
would have to do is use 1 computer with ponder off both programs .give 1 program
3 min the other 30 mins per move .i think a good test would be cm6000 i can play
it vs itself at those kinds of odds .i still believe that a 10 ghz computer does
not play much better at slow chess than a 1 ghz computer,maybe 100 elo .between
a 100 mhz and a 1ghz is about 500 elo .but this test must be done on a 1ghz
computer .unless you can figure out how much time a given computer must think to
equal a 3 min search and a 30 min search of a 1 ghz computer .



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