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Subject: Re: I will continue the match until there is a diffence of 7 games

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 00:48:51 12/20/00

Go up one level in this thread


On December 20, 2000 at 02:54:17, David Rasmussen wrote:

>On December 19, 2000 at 12:08:16, Christophe Theron wrote:
>
>>
>>----------------------------------------------
>>Reliability of chess matches (confidence: 80%)
>>
>> 10 games: 14.0% (105 pts)
>> 20 games: 11.0% ( 77 pts)
>> 30 games:  9.0% ( 63 pts)
>> 40 games:  8.0% ( 56 pts)
>> 50 games:  7.0% ( 49 pts)
>>100 games:  5.0% ( 35 pts)
>>200 games:  3.5% ( 25 pts)
>>400 games:  2.5% ( 18 pts)
>>600 games:  2.2% ( 15 pts)
>>----------------------------------------------
>>
>
>If this has to be of any use, you have to have at least a 95% level of
>significance. 80% is not very useful, IMO.
>
>The Insane Dane

80% is useful.

If you want to know which program to buy getting information that program A is
better than B with 80% confidence is better than no information.

The main problem with all this information is that there is no clear definition
if program A is better than B.


Suppose A get 60% against B
B gets 60% against C and C gets 60% against A
Which program is better A,B  or C?

If a lot of programs are similiar to C then B will be the best in the ssdf list
and if a lot of programs are similiar to B then A will be the best in the ssdf
list.


Uri



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