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Subject: Re: At 2 hours per move, which is strongest program?

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 01:40:38 01/11/01

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On January 11, 2001 at 04:27:28, stuart taylor wrote:

>On January 11, 2001 at 04:09:07, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 11, 2001 at 02:33:18, Ricardo Gibert wrote:
>>
>>>On January 10, 2001 at 17:50:40, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 10, 2001 at 07:26:35, stuart taylor wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>The question is all in the heading. I mean with hardware of about 450 mhz.
>>>>>upwards (till 1.2 ghz?).
>>>>>  This question is an ofshoot of Uri's comment that Rebel does better with more
>>>>>time.
>>>>> If you want to analyse a move for 2 hours, which program would have seen most
>>>>>(of what is important and relevant, and consequently play the strongest move) in
>>>>>those 2 hours. Or longer?
>>>>
>>>>Not only do we not know the answer to that question, we'll never even come close
>>>>to knowing.
>>>
>>>Never? That's a long time. You're forgetting about Moore's Law, which can
>>>effectively convert hours into minutes. Also, someone with access to a large LAN
>>>could do the test. Besides, if the programs compared are competitive at normal
>>>time controls, probably the one with the lowest average EBF is strongest at the
>>>much slower time controls. Naturally, a test is the only way to know for sure,
>>>since a lower EBF can have it's drawbacks.
>>
>>Yes, really, never.
>>
>>I have a large LAN I can use for such things.  Even so, the project is
>>ridiculously out of scope.  I am just finishing a contest that ran 1000 2 hour
>>games and it took me 6 months to finish it.  With absurdly dedicated effort,
>>working around the clock, I could have completed it in one month.  That would be
>>just about what would be needed to get an accurate figure for a single
>>engine/engine pair.  AT G/60!!!  Now, stretch it out to 2 hours per move.
>>
>>Now, supposing we got 1000 computers properly configured (it would take months
>>of testing to be sure that we had done so).  Now, perhaps in a few years we can
>>complete that contest.  However, by that time the winner would be hopelessly
>>outclassed by the new programs that had appeared in the intervening time.
>>Hence, the answer would still be completely unanswered.
>>
>>Faster computers won't help to answer it either.  The question is still "At 2
>>hours per move, which is strongest program?"  So having a Petahertz computer
>>won't help a lick.
>
>I mean 2 hours per move at the speed of present day computers.

The answer to that question won't be worth knowing 5 years from now.
Does anyone really care how well Crafty 11 does on a P90?
I didn't think so.



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