Author: Walter Koroljow
Date: 08:33:25 01/17/01
In September, I posted an analysis to the effect that the average rating of the PC programs in Chris Carson's database was between 2502 and 2595 with more than 95% probability. After the Van der Wiel match, it is time for an update. The probability is over 95% that the average rating of the PC programs is between 2503 and 2594. The spread has gone down a bit. Van der Wiel's rating is 2493. Therefore Rebel's performance rating for the match was 2560 which lies in the middle of 2503 and 2594. Not much change could be expected from this match, and there wasn't. I included all PCs running processors at or above 200MHz. This consisted of 30 program/PC combinations playing 163 games (+73,=57,-27) for a score of 105-58 (64.4%) against opposition with an average rating of 2418. VERY QUICK OVERVIEW OF CALCULATIONS: On 9/5/00 I posted (http://site2936.dellhost.com/forums/1/message.shtml?128346) giving excruciating detail on the calculations. This is an overview. The one major constant assumption is that results of individual games are independent. The calculation then assumes a trial average rating and a spread for the ratings. A Monte Carlo simulation runs the 163 games one million times and computes the probabilities of the results. If the probability calculated for what actually happened is less than 5%, the trial mean and the spread can be rejected. Spreads from 0 to 400 were tried, and in all cases, averages below 2503 and above 2594 had to be rejected. The effect of the spread was minimal.
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