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Subject: Re: If 75 Games are not considered a Statistical proof, neither is the SSDF.

Author: Bruce Moreland

Date: 22:19:37 01/30/01

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On January 30, 2001 at 23:24:08, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 30, 2001 at 23:12:30, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>[snip]
>>I agree that if I play games against old GNU chess versions, I don't see that
>>kind of nonsense very often, and that most of this is highlighted by the fact
>>that the two versions I am testing are _very_ close to each other, making the
>>test very difficult to interpret.
>
>Which brings up an interesting point -- with close engines we *do* have a sort
>of unstable equilibrium.  It could take ten thousand matches before we find out
>if some small change produces an incremental value.
>
>So how *do* we check to see if an idea is a good one?

You use statistics.  You figure out what the odds are that your result is due to
chance.  If the odds are high enough that you are scared that you are making a
mistake, you throw out the result or do more tests.

bruce




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