Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 08:55:38 02/10/01
Go up one level in this thread
On February 10, 2001 at 08:00:25, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>On February 10, 2001 at 01:41:29, Christophe Theron wrote:
>
>>On February 09, 2001 at 17:11:23, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>>
>>>I Just checked the SSDF result of the match between Junior 6.0 vs Nimzo 8 on a
>>>K6-2 450 MHz and Nimzo 8 was beaten bad by Junior 6.0, by a score of 26.0 to
>>>14.0 points including draws. Now this score is compared to my previous match of
>>>75 games at G\60 in which Junior 6.0 got the edge by 6.5 points using an AMD
>>>K6-2 500 MHz with 128 MB SDRAM. But when I used the Athlon 800 MHz the reverse
>>>happened as far as score, not only it happened with my Athlon 800 MHz
>>>but in a short match of 20 games at the Cadaque's Tourney, Nimzo also beat
>>>Junior 6.0 by 11.5 to 8.5 using a pentium 933 MHz. Therefore, there is a
>>>correlation in my judgement in assuming that as the speed of the processor
>>>increases Nimzo 8 plays better chess than Junior 6.0. Now I just finished
>>>playing 4 games at 40\120 between Deep Fritz vs Nimzo 8 using my Athlon 800 MHz
>>>and Nimzo 8 did not benefit from using the Athlon 800 MHz, the score is so far
>>>W2 L1 D1 in favor of Deep Fritz. In this case there is also a correlation
>>>between the score of Deep Fritz Vs Nimzo as there was on the Cadaque's match to
>>>assume that Deep Fritz benefit more than Nimzo 8 as the speed of the processors
>>>increases. Lets wait patiently to see what happen as the result is being
>>>provided to us daily by Mr.Hans in the SSDF match of Nimzo 8 vs Deep Fritz. My
>>>prediction for this match is that it will end up in favor of DF, but by a very
>>>small margin.
>>>
>>>Pichard
>>
>>
>>
>>Did I already mention the margin of errors of such short matches?
>>
>>Oh yes, I did.
>>
>>And you simply keep on ignoring basic statistics, and you keep on bringing over
>>and over your point about Nimzo vs Junior.
>>
>>Oops... Maybe you have understood basic statistics in a special way? Maybe you
>>think that by saying a statement over and over again you can decrease the margin
>>of error of this statement until it eventually becomes true? A revolutionnary
>>new theory? :)
>>
>>If you want to demonstrate your point, just play A LOT of games and post the
>>result.
>>
>> Christophe
>
>75 games are by no mean considered short matches, and your basic statistics are
>not precise measurements which equal to chess result.
>
>Pichard
The longer the match, the smaller the error margin. So there is no absolute
definition of "short match".
What you need to check is the result of the match against the error margin of a
match of this length. Then you can tell if the match was "statistically
significant", with a given level of confidence, or not.
In order to get for example a 90% level of confidence (which still leave 10%
chances that what you say is wrong), you'll be surprised by how many games you
need to play.
When the opponents are close in strength, and that's the case with Nimzo8 and
Junior6, the number of games to play to get a 90% confidence is probably in the
range 100 to 200, or more.
We have been telling you this several times, it should not be news to you.
I could post some statistical tables with the number of games and the associated
error margins. Would you then have a look at them?
Christophe
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