Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:05:15 03/16/01
Go up one level in this thread
On March 16, 2001 at 14:59:18, Dann Corbit wrote: >On March 16, 2001 at 00:20:51, Roy Beam wrote: >[snip] >> I think it is a fact that no 2500 player could ever beat garry kasparov in a >>match short of him falling dead at the board. > >You think incorrectly. > >According to: >http://www.fide.org/fide/html/top32.html > >Kasparov's ELO is: >2849 > >2849-2500 is: >349 > >The win expectency for a difference of 349 points is 0.118261 > >Here is an interesting table: >Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 >Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 >Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 >Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 >Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 >Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 >Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 >Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 >Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 >Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 >Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 > >Therefore, an opponent of ELO 2500 will win a shocking 11% of the points in a >match with Garry Kasparov. This is very badly phrased. In fact, I can't believe I wrote it! Obviously, it should say: Therefore, ON AVERAGE, an opponent of ELO 2500 will win a shocking 11% of the points in a match with Garry Kasparov. A single match might well be 10-0 for Kasparov, or whatever. The figures require a large set of trials. > >Now, I suspect that most of those points will be from draws. But definitely, >given enough chances, some 2500 ELO person will win. > >Say... >What's this? > >[Event "????"] >[Site "New York"] >[Date "1997.??.??"] >[Round "?"] >[White "Kasparov, G"] >[Black "Wong, C"] >[Result "0-1"] >[WhiteElo "2820"] >[BlackElo "2185"] >[ECO "D11"] >[Opening "QGD Slav"] >[Variation "3.Nf3"] > >1. Nf3 d5 2. c4 c6 3. d4 e6 4. cxd5 cxd5 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. e4 dxe4 7. Nxe4 Nf6 >8. Nxf6+ Qxf6 9. Bd3 h6 10. Bd2 Qd8 11. Rc1 Be7 12. Qa4 Bd7 13. Be2 a6 14. >O-O O-O 15. Qb3 Qc7 16. Ne5 Bd6 17. Bf3 Rfc8 18. Rfe1 a5 19. Bxc6 Bxc6 20. >Bf4 a4 21. Qe3 Bxe5 22. Bxe5 Qe7 23. Qc3 Qg5 24. f3 Bd5 25. Qxc8+ Rxc8 26. >Rxc8+ Kh7 27. Rc2 Bxa2 28. Bg3 b5 29. Kh1 Bc4 30. Rec1 f6 31. f4 Qf5 32. h3 >h5 33. Kh2 Qd5 34. Bf2 Qd6 35. g3 h4 36. Rc3 hxg3+ 37. Kxg3 g5 38. Be3 >gxf4+ 39. Bxf4 Qxd4 40. h4 e5 41. Be3 Qe4 42. h5 f5 43. Bc5 Qg4+ 44. Kf2 >Qxh5 45. Kg2 Qg4+ 46. Kh2 Qf4+ 47. Kg1 e4 48. Kh1 Qh4+ 49. Kg2 Qg5+ 50. Kh2 >Qf4+ 51. Kh1 Kg7 52. Rd1 Bd3 53. Bd4+ Kf7 54. Rdc1 Qf3+ 55. Kh2 Qf4+ 56. >Kh1 Qh4+ 57. Kg1 Qg3+ 58. Kh1 f4 59. b4 axb3 60. Rxb3 f3 61. Rb2 Be2 62. >Rxe2 fxe2 0-1 > >Never say never. Oops. I just said it. Twice.
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