Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: IBM would risk 37 billion dollar

Author: Bruce Moreland

Date: 01:49:05 03/31/01

Go up one level in this thread


On March 30, 2001 at 09:51:47, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:

[snip]

>But let's approach it from how IBM will approach it. It will be
>a business decision, and those decisions are usually taken by managers
>who probably never heart of the 'en passant' rule (i'm not implying
>that most readers of CCC therefore know the rule).
>
>Managers think in terms of numbers. The number is quite convincing
>to NEVER ever again let Deep Blue live when it is interesting to let it
>play. It's obvious that in 2001 programs are hell better now as in 1997.
>
>Like any commercial program of today will beat the hell out of this deep
>blue thing. If it's not book, then it's because of pawn structure, if it's
>not because of that, then it'll be exchanging some crucial pieces in the
>middlegame etcetera.
>
>However this is all of no concern of business men. They see a 37 billion
>dollar risk.

It's not a 37 billion dollar risk; that's complete lunacy.

What they got out of DB was the impression in a lot of people's minds that IBM
had created a machine that was stronger than the best human on earth.  This
impression has some value.  It's a nebulous sort of value.  It's the idea that
people might be more likely to have a warm fuzzy feeling about IBM and buy their
stuff over someone else's.  The value is not equal to 20% of the value of the
company (the market cap is $169B).  That's just insane.

If they lose another match, to either a computer or a human, they will lose the
prestige value.  If they win, they will retain it.  It's stupid from a financial
viewpoint to risk a lot without having anything to gain.  So I agree with your
conclusions about why it won't play, I just think your math is crazy.

bruce




This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.