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Subject: Re: ==> The future 300 GHz machines won't win very impressively either

Author: Miguel A. Ballicora

Date: 15:53:46 05/20/01

Go up one level in this thread


On May 20, 2001 at 14:47:12, Christophe Theron wrote:

>On May 20, 2001 at 14:26:15, Vine Smith wrote:
>
>>On May 20, 2001 at 13:24:29, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>
>>>On May 20, 2001 at 04:25:41, Frank Phillips wrote:
>>>
>>>>On May 19, 2001 at 23:48:48, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On May 19, 2001 at 23:37:31, Ratko V Tomic wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>>I'm extremely surprised that my creature managed to survive more
>>>>>>> than 30 moves, given a 300 times speed handicap.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The flip side is that the current programs running at some
>>>>>>future machines at 300 GHz won't be able to crush the current
>>>>>>programs on 1 GHz any more convincingly (in terms of how
>>>>>>many moves the slower machine can hang on) than what happened
>>>>>>in this matchup.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>This is the same effect that many players have experienced
>>>>>>when upgrading their hardware to 2-3 times faster one and
>>>>>>then being disapponted, after all the expense and hopes,
>>>>>>when they can't even notice any difference in the perceived
>>>>>>program strength (aginst humans).
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>You are absolutely right.
>>>>>
>>>>>I think we are already beginning to experience the effects of dimishing returns
>>>>>in chess on current hardware at long time controls.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>
>>>>Would someone take the time to explain this simply and clearly, to me.  I can
>>>>understand that if you are already beating humans (or some other group of
>>>>players) most of the time, then increasing the speed still means you are beating
>>>>them most of the time and maybe a bit more, but until a machine can see _all_
>>>>there is to see how would it not improve by seeing more and how can you say
>>>>(apriori) that it will improve only at a diminishing return?  In other words, I
>>>>can believe that results against a set of players is aysomtopic, tending towards
>>>>100 percent, but do see why this is necessarily true of the game played by two
>>>>otherwiseequally matched entities.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>In my opinion it has to do with the fact that in a given chess position the
>>>number of moves is limited. Generally you have between 20 and 50 legal moves.
>>>
>>>From these moves, only an even more limited subset does not lead to an obvious
>>>loss.
>>>
>>>And from this subset there is an even more limited subset of moves (2 or 3
>>>generally) that can be played, and chosing between them is a matter of
>>>preference because the amount of computation needed to prove which one is better
>>>is too big for any computer.
>>>
>>>So once you reach the stage where you can see which 2 or 3 moves are playable,
>>>it would take an additional huge computation to see further.
>>>
>>>I think some chess programs on current computers at long time controls have
>>>already reached this stage, and this is why is becomes increasingly difficult to
>>>say which one is better.
>>>
>>>This is a very simplistic explanation which lacks mathematical support, I know,
>>>but that's how I explain dimishing returns.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>    Christophe
>>
>>Is it possible that there is also a problem with bad evaluations infecting whole
>>branches in the tree of analysis? In Fritz vs. Gambit Tiger at Leiden, Fritz
>>played 21.b4, shutting in its queen. Was this not a dreadful move? Yet, I had
>>Fritz analyze after this point through 18 ply, and the evaluation was just +0.06
>>(after which it mysteriously halted analysis). And Tiger 14 has reached 20 ply
>>looking at this same position, with an evaluation of just +0.46 after 21...Nc3
>>22.Rd3 Qf6 23.Kf1 Ne4 24.Bd4 Qf7 25.Bb2 g5 26.Rde3 Bf4 27.Bxe4 fxe4 28.Rxe4 Rxe4
>>29.Rxe4 Qxd5 30.Re7. Actually, the final position is lost for White after
>>30...Qd3+ 31.Re2 Qb1+ 32.Ne1 Bf5, but White doesn't need to play 30.Re7. The
>>point is that neither program, given even 10-12 hours to think (on a PIII 850)
>>appreciates the disastrous effects of White's missing queen. As poor evaluations
>>like this clog up the search, all lines begin to look like one another, despite
>>huge differences between them that would be clear to any human player examining
>>these positions.
>>Regards,
>>Vine Smith
>
>
>
>I do not agree.
>
>Tiger KNOWS about the bad position of the Queen after b4 and would never play
>this move.
>
>If you try, you will see that Tiger's evaluation is different in the lines the
>queen is trapped and in the lines it is not.
>
>The evaluation difference is not big, but it is enough to avoid such a
>disastrous move in almost all the cases, and to try to find a way to free the
>queen if it happens to be trapped by a long sequence of forced moves.
>
>Tiger is able to identify some cases of blocked pieces or pieces with poor
>mobility in its evaluation. In particular, it is able to see that the queen is
>blocked after b4? and gives a penalty for this. I have worked hard in this part
>of the evaluation, so I can't let you generalize and say that any program would
>ignore the consequences of the trapped queen. Mine knows.

Even mine knows :-) Yes, my program sucks but my point is that it is a matter
of tuning the evaluation, it is now mission impossible.

Vine, I post the results before in case that you miss the post (it is easy
with so much traffic)

http://www.icdchess.com/forums/1/message.shtml?170629

Regards,
Miguel

>
>
>
>    Christophe



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