Author: Marvin
Date: 12:57:35 06/27/01
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On June 27, 2001 at 07:26:10, Graham Laight wrote: >On June 27, 2001 at 05:59:05, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On June 27, 2001 at 05:48:58, Adam Oellermann wrote: >> >>><snippety snip> >>>>>You are correct Sir. A fly is more intelligent than the biggest computer. >>>> >>>>This is outdated information. Computer power in a single machine (multiple >>>>processors) now exceeds the processing power of a fly. >>> >>>Yup, and if Moore's Law holds good for a few more decades, we might be able to >>>manage a cockroach! However, the software implementation is bound to be buggy... >> >>Pretty amazing that a bee can do 20 GFlops on a few micrograms of nectar. Be >>that as it may: >> >>http://cart.frc.ri.cmu.edu/users/hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/1999/SciAm.scan.html > >This article is way too pessimistic in assuming that human intelligence will >take until 2050 to achieve. > >1. They assume that to do a task a human can do, you need the same amount of >processing power. This is ridiculous. Chess computers are, or are nearly, at GM >standard with only a tiny, tiny, tiny proportion of the processing power. A >cheap chess computer, with a 10 Mhz processor, tiny amount of RAM, and 32k >program will easily beat well over 99% of chess players. > >2. The article, at 2 years old, is massively out of date. Much of the article >discusses the problem of a robot navigating its workspace. For a mere £35,000 a >British hospital has just intalled a robot which has solved these problems - see >http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_330824.html > >3. The article implies that the whole human brain is working as hard as the >retina (the 2050 calculation is based on calculating how hard the retina works, >weighing it, the multiplying by the weight of the brain). This is again >ridiculous. > >You'll see - by 2025 there will be no aspect of human intelligence that can't be >demonstrably outperformed by a machine. Dream on. Marvin > >-g
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