Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 20:43:40 10/08/01
Go up one level in this thread
On October 08, 2001 at 23:29:55, Christophe Theron wrote: >On October 08, 2001 at 23:20:41, K. Burcham wrote: >> >>it seems the higher you go in your chess level, the more draws that >> will be. >> >>with five more years of book improvements, engine advances, and inmprovements >> in egtb's, and after reading this page at the inquirer, the level of comp >> play will be at a very high level. 20 gig processors should hit at least >> 15000 kns. with improvements these might hit 20000 kns. if these become >>available in smp then you are talking about 30000 to 35000 kns. with huge >>improvements in buss speeds and total ram capacity, we will have "auto hash on". >>there will be no hash settings by then, and hash will not have physical limits. >> >>at this level of play, with this number of kns, search depths will be at >> an unbelievable level. with search depths at 25 to 45, comp chess will >> be looked at different then we view it today. > > > >We are currently reaching 13-14-15 plies, and with computers 20 times faster we >cannot even hope to get 4 plies deeper. > >So your 25-45 plies figures are completely wrong. It will be 17-18-19, maybe 20 >if we manage to get significant algorithmic improvements. We can see with they will look like in 2006 right now, by looking at the games on those 8 CPU machines: http://pr.fujitsu.com/en/news/2000/07/17.html http://www.chess-mate.com/fcc2ss.htm They are about 8 times as fast as what most people have on their desks right now. So, if you reduce time control from 40/2 to (perhaps) G/60 that's about what "the machines of the future" will play like. Sure, there will be machines that play 8 times faster than that, easily. But they will cost an arm and a leg, just like 8x faster boxes do now.
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