Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Miguel A. Ballicora

Date: 10:11:12 01/16/02

Go up one level in this thread


On January 16, 2002 at 07:41:28, Graham Laight wrote:

>It has occurred to me that it is wrong to evaluate a position in terms of
>relative pawns (the "de facto" standard - whereby an evaluation of 2 means that
>you're approximately the equivalent of 2 pawns ahead).
>
>This means that many aspects of evaluation have to be squeezed into a dimension
>which is not appropriate at all.
>
>A better way would be to evaluate "winning probability". If a position was a
>draw, the value would be 0.50 (or 50%). If the player should win 3 out of 4
>times, the eval should be 75%. If the player must win from here, then the
>evaluation should be 100%.
>
>It seems strange when you think about it that all programmers have chosen to
>adopt the traditional "pawn equivalence" standard.

I agree with you, except in some details. In fact, every single programmer
is doing what you say, they just do not know it :-).
everytime they add bonuses, penalties, etc. etc. they are adjusting a score
that could be expressed as "probability". For instance, a pawn does not worth
the same in the opening than in an endgame. Why? because you have more chances
to score a win in an endgame with a pawn extra than in the opening (of course
you have to include exceptions an other parameters into the equation).
That makes the engine go for "higher" probabilities, expressed in pawns.
I think that it could be possible to calibrate (it won't be linear) a scale from
0 to 100% compared to -MATE to MATE. Mate in one, should not be 100% to allow
the program to go "forward" to 100%. 100% is only a Mate in the board. So, mate
in one could be 99.999% or whatever.
The point is, nothing will change, just the output. In fact, I try to think
in terms of probabilities: one PAWN is equal to the prob. to win with
a PAWN advantage in the initial position.

Regards,
Miguel





>
>-g



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.