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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 16:33:36 01/16/02

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On January 16, 2002 at 07:41:28, Graham Laight wrote:

>It has occurred to me that it is wrong to evaluate a position in terms of
>relative pawns (the "de facto" standard - whereby an evaluation of 2 means that
>you're approximately the equivalent of 2 pawns ahead).
>
>This means that many aspects of evaluation have to be squeezed into a dimension
>which is not appropriate at all.

You can create a map between the two if you like.
It shouldn't be a problem to make a table that could take a given "pawn score"
and translate it into a probability or vice versa.

However, if the pawn score is higher, then the probability score will also be
higher (assuming it is a good program with lots of positional understanding as
well, and not just a simple material evaluator of cause).
The map will be monotonic, i.e. its derivative will have one sign only.

So, no matter how you choose to look at it, if move A is better than move B with
pawn eval, then it will also be the preferred move with a probability eval.
Result will be that the search will find the same move either way.

>A better way would be to evaluate "winning probability". If a position was a
>draw, the value would be 0.50 (or 50%). If the player should win 3 out of 4
>times, the eval should be 75%. If the player must win from here, then the
>evaluation should be 100%.

You would need three probabilities, one for draw and two for white or black
winning (they should sum to 1 of cause), it is not simpler IMO.

>It seems strange when you think about it that all programmers have chosen to
>adopt the traditional "pawn equivalence" standard.

I don't see any particular strength to this method, other than it may seem more
natural to some people.

>-g

-S.



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