Author: Michael Fuhrmann
Date: 17:34:27 02/07/02
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On February 07, 2002 at 15:49:58, Dann Corbit wrote: >On February 07, 2002 at 14:55:34, Michael Fuhrmann wrote: > >> >>I wonder how much stronger today’s top programs can get without using faster >>hardware. >> >>It possible for these programs to get significantly better on current hardware? >> >>If not, there may be some comfort in this: >> >>Assuming >> >>a) comps continue to double in speed every 1.5 years, and >>b) that represents a gain of about 50 elo points, >> >>A program rated 2400 on today’s PC hardware would reach an elo of 3000 in 20 >>years _ that is, the year 2022 _ with no improvements made to the software >>whatsoever. That should be enough to beat any human on the planet rather >>convincingly. > >What happens if the humans increase in ability even faster? > >For instance, I think if you transport Kasparov back in time, he will whip the >snot out of Paul Morphy. Better opening theory, better practice tools, etc. Hmmm . . interesting, hadn't considered that possibility. But intuitively, it seems to me that comps will improve at a much faster rate that humans. For one thing, their improvement is a sure thing. The faster harware will make them play better. With humans, there's no sure thing about it. It's even possible that the best humans 20 years from now will be worse than Kasparov.
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